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Sha Tin · 2025-07-01 · 09:05

Race 3

Class 4 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-07-01 was Class 4 over 1400m. SPIRIT OF PEACE, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by N, with CHINA WIN second and SILVER UP third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite FORTUNATE SON finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.21.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SPIRIT OF PEACE Closed strongly H- 1.21.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 2 8.6 N
2 6 CHINA WIN Closed strongly M F Poon · D A Hayes 1 10.0 N
3 10 SILVER UP Closed strongly B M L Yeung · C W Chang 11 44.0 3/4
4 9 BULL ATTITUDE B1 L Ferraris · M Newnham 12 14.0 1-1/4
5 11 HANDSOME BOMB Led early B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 8.3 1-3/4
6 3 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly B2/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes 14 12.0 3-1/4
7 8 LUCKY YEAR B Thompson · C H Yip 3 87.0 3-1/4
8 1 FORTUNATE SON Closed strongly B-/TT2 Z Purton · W K Mo 7 3.4 4-1/2
9 14 HE WAS ME Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 55.0 4-3/4
10 4 MIGHTY STEED CP1 A Atzeni · K W Lui 4 3.8 4-3/4
11 12 LAKESHORE HERO CP1 K De Melo · D J Hall 5 11.0 6-1/2
12 7 GLORIOUS RYDER XB K C Leung · D Eustace 9 208.0 8
13 13 MAGIC COMBO CP/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 8 171.0 9-3/4
14 5 BOWSER V- K Teetan · P F Yiu 10 38.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPIRIT OF PEACE2. CHINA WIN+0.05L3. SILVER UP+0.75L4. BULL ATTITUDE+1.25L5. HANDSOME BOMB+1.75L6. FLAGSHIP WARRIOR+3.25L7. LUCKY YEAR+3.25L8. FORTUNATE SON+4.5L9. HE WAS ME+4.75L10. MIGHTY STEED+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FORTUNATE SON (22.5%) finished 8th — the winner SPIRIT OF PEACE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FORTUNATE SON 22.5% 4.45 8
2 4 MIGHTY STEED 20.9% 4.79 10
3 2 SPIRIT OF PEACE 10.4% 9.60 1
4 6 CHINA WIN 7.9% 12.62 2
5 3 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 7.3% 13.67 6
6 12 LAKESHORE HERO 6.9% 14.43 11
7 11 HANDSOME BOMB 5.0% 20.19 5
8 5 BOWSER 4.3% 23.39 14
9 14 HE WAS ME 4.1% 24.38 9
10 9 BULL ATTITUDE 4.1% 24.55 4
11 10 SILVER UP 3.4% 29.78 3
12 8 LUCKY YEAR 1.8% 54.32 7
13 13 MAGIC COMBO 0.8% 130.10 13
14 7 GLORIOUS RYDER 0.7% 149.80 12
FORTUNATE SONMIGHTY STEEDSPIRIT OF PEACE — wonCHINA WINFLAGSHIP WARRIORLAKESHORE HEROHANDSOME BOMBBOWSERHE WAS MEBULL ATTITUDESILVER UPLUCKY YEARMAGIC COMBOGLORIOUS RYDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 86

PLACE

2 22

6 38.5

10 93.5

QUINELLA

2,6 341

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 138.5

2,10 499

6,10 785.5

FORECAST

2,6 1,088

TIERCE

2,6,10 32,439

TRIO

2,6,10 4,592

FIRST 4

2,6,9,10 16,239

QUARTET

2,6,10,9 306,897

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

13/2 447

13/6 99.5