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Sha Tin · 2025-07-01 · 17:03

Race 3

Class 4 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SPIRIT OF PEACE Closed strongly H- 1.21.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 2 8.6 N
2 6 CHINA WIN Closed strongly M F Poon · D A Hayes 1 10.0 N
3 10 SILVER UP Closed strongly B M L Yeung · C W Chang 11 44.0 3/4
4 9 BULL ATTITUDE B1 L Ferraris · M Newnham 12 14.0 1-1/4
5 11 HANDSOME BOMB Led early B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 8.3 1-3/4
6 3 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly B2/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes 14 12.0 3-1/4
7 8 LUCKY YEAR B Thompson · C H Yip 3 87.0 3-1/4
8 1 FORTUNATE SON Closed strongly B-/TT2 Z Purton · W K Mo 7 3.4 4-1/2
9 14 HE WAS ME Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 55.0 4-3/4
10 4 MIGHTY STEED CP1 A Atzeni · K W Lui 4 3.8 4-3/4
11 12 LAKESHORE HERO CP1 K De Melo · D J Hall 5 11.0 6-1/2
12 7 GLORIOUS RYDER XB K C Leung · D Eustace 9 208.0 8
13 13 MAGIC COMBO CP/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 8 171.0 9-3/4
14 5 BOWSER V- K Teetan · P F Yiu 10 38.0 12-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-07-01 was Class 4 over 1400m. SPIRIT OF PEACE, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by N, with CHINA WIN second and SILVER UP third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite FORTUNATE SON finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPIRIT OF PEACE—2. CHINA WIN+0.05L3. SILVER UP+0.75L4. BULL ATTITUDE+1.25L5. HANDSOME BOMB+1.75L6. FLAGSHIP WARRIOR+3.25L7. LUCKY YEAR+3.25L8. FORTUNATE SON+4.5L9. HE WAS ME+4.75L10. MIGHTY STEED+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FORTUNATE SON (22.5%) finished 8th — the winner SPIRIT OF PEACE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FORTUNATE SON 22.5% 4.45 8
2 4 MIGHTY STEED 20.9% 4.79 10
3 2 SPIRIT OF PEACE 10.4% 9.60 1
4 6 CHINA WIN 7.9% 12.62 2
5 3 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 7.3% 13.67 6
6 12 LAKESHORE HERO 6.9% 14.43 11
7 11 HANDSOME BOMB 5.0% 20.19 5
8 5 BOWSER 4.3% 23.39 14
9 14 HE WAS ME 4.1% 24.38 9
10 9 BULL ATTITUDE 4.1% 24.55 4
11 10 SILVER UP 3.4% 29.78 3
12 8 LUCKY YEAR 1.8% 54.32 7
13 13 MAGIC COMBO 0.8% 130.10 13
14 7 GLORIOUS RYDER 0.7% 149.80 12
FORTUNATE SONMIGHTY STEEDSPIRIT OF PEACE — wonCHINA WINFLAGSHIP WARRIORLAKESHORE HEROHANDSOME BOMBBOWSERHE WAS MEBULL ATTITUDESILVER UPLUCKY YEARMAGIC COMBOGLORIOUS RYDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 86

PLACE

2 22

6 38.5

10 93.5

QUINELLA

2,6 341

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 138.5

2,10 499

6,10 785.5

FORECAST

2,6 1,088

TIERCE

2,6,10 32,439

TRIO

2,6,10 4,592

FIRST 4

2,6,9,10 16,239

QUARTET

2,6,10,9 306,897

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

13/2 447

13/6 99.5