Happy Valley · 2025-07-09 · 10:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-07-09 was Class 5 over 1000m. NOTTHESILLYONE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by M Newnham, won by SH, with ACE TALENT second and MODEST GENTLEMAN third. The 2.8 favourite ACE TALENT finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | NOTTHESILLYONE TT 0.56.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · M Newnham | H Bowman | M Newnham | 2 | 5.2 | SH |
| 2 | 11 | ACE TALENT PC/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 3 | 2.8 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 9 | 15.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | GLORIOUS EXPERT P- H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 7 | 21.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | DOUBLE SHOW B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 10 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | COLONEL B2/TT E C W Wong · J Richards | E C W Wong | J Richards | 11 | 31.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING CP2 K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 1 | 9.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | HAPPY TANGO B J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 6 | 7.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | NOBLE GO XB/E1/TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 5 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SO AWESOME B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 8 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | KA YING POWER B/H M F Poon · T P Yung | M F Poon | T P Yung | 4 | 20.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 5 | SUPER ELITE B/XB2 K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 12 | 41.0 | 6-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | NOTTHESILLYONE | 20.8% | 4.80 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | ACE TALENT | 16.4% | 6.10 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | SO AWESOME | 15.9% | 6.29 | 10 |
| 4 | 12 | DOUBLE SHOW | 7.8% | 12.82 | 5 |
| 5 | 3 | KA YING POWER | 6.8% | 14.78 | 11 |
| 6 | 8 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING | 6.7% | 14.83 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | NOBLE GO | 5.8% | 17.20 | 9 |
| 8 | 6 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 4.7% | 21.06 | 3 |
| 9 | 5 | SUPER ELITE | 3.9% | 25.90 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | GLORIOUS EXPERT | 3.9% | 25.91 | 4 |
| 11 | 10 | HAPPY TANGO | 3.8% | 26.52 | 8 |
| 12 | 1 | COLONEL | 3.5% | 28.32 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 52.5
PLACE
4 20.5
6 41
11 14
QUINELLA
4,11 81.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 151.5
4,11 36.5
6,11 88.5
FORECAST
4,11 219
TIERCE
4,11,6 2,477
TRIO
4,6,11 415
FIRST 4
4,6,9,11 1,757
QUARTET
4,11,6,9 28,619