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Happy Valley · 2025-07-09 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1000m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-07-09 was Class 4 over 1000m. LUCKY TWENTY, ridden by J Orman and trained by K H Ting, won by 1/2, with HARMONY FIRE second and DAY DAY VICTORY third. The 3.5 favourite DAY DAY VICTORY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.56.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 LUCKY TWENTY 0.56.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · K H Ting 11 61.0 1/2
2 6 HARMONY FIRE XB-/B/TT2 L Ferraris · D J Whyte 3 5.0 1/2
3 10 DAY DAY VICTORY A Badel · T P Yung 4 3.5 1-1/4
4 2 HAPPY UNITED B/TT Y L Chung · J Richards 10 13.0 2-1/4
5 9 HAPPY BOYS XB Z Purton · M Newnham 12 9.3 2-1/2
6 7 KING VICTOR P K C Leung · K L Man 8 20.0 3
7 3 CRYSTAL POWERFUL B/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 6 9.7 3-1/4
8 5 POWER SUMMIT SR1/TT1 K Teetan · D Eustace 2 35.0 4-1/4
9 1 LEAN MASTER B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 7 4.0 5-1/2
10 8 THOUSAND CUPS TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 9 47.0 6-1/2
11 11 DIVINE MOONLIGHT B B Thompson · P C Ng 1 75.0 10-1/2
12 12 FORTUNE RACER TT K De Melo · W Y So 5 14.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY TWENTY2. HARMONY FIRE+0.5L3. DAY DAY VICTORY+1.25L4. HAPPY UNITED+2.25L5. HAPPY BOYS+2.5L6. KING VICTOR+3L7. CRYSTAL POWERFUL+3.25L8. POWER SUMMIT+4.25L9. LEAN MASTER+5.5L10. THOUSAND CUPS+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LEAN MASTER (24.8%) finished 9th — the winner LUCKY TWENTY was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 LEAN MASTER 24.8% 4.03 9
2 10 DAY DAY VICTORY 23.5% 4.26 3
3 5 POWER SUMMIT 11.6% 8.65 8
4 6 HARMONY FIRE 9.1% 11.01 2
5 9 HAPPY BOYS 8.8% 11.31 5
6 3 CRYSTAL POWERFUL 7.8% 12.82 7
7 2 HAPPY UNITED 5.8% 17.10 4
8 4 LUCKY TWENTY 3.2% 30.82 1
9 8 THOUSAND CUPS 1.8% 56.37 10
10 12 FORTUNE RACER 1.5% 65.68 12
11 7 KING VICTOR 1.1% 88.58 6
12 11 DIVINE MOONLIGHT 0.9% 108.50 11
LEAN MASTERDAY DAY VICTORYPOWER SUMMITHARMONY FIREHAPPY BOYSCRYSTAL POWERFULHAPPY UNITEDLUCKY TWENTY — wonTHOUSAND CUPSFORTUNE RACERKING VICTORDIVINE MOONLIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 617.5

PLACE

4 166

6 18.5

10 15

QUINELLA

4,6 1,506

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 469

4,10 437

6,10 32.5

FORECAST

4,6 3,279

TIERCE

4,6,10 17,550

TRIO

4,6,10 1,564

FIRST 4

2,4,6,10 3,072

QUARTET

4,6,10,2 144,156

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

8/4 6,214.5

8/6 157.5