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Happy Valley · 2025-07-09 · 12:45

Race 5

Class 4 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-07-09 was Class 4 over 1650m. RED MAJESTY, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with MIGHTY STEED second and CAPITAL LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite JUMBO FORTUNE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.39.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 RED MAJESTY Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · D A Hayes 5 16.0 1/2
2 8 MIGHTY STEED Led early CP Y L Chung · K W Lui 7 4.7 1/2
3 1 CAPITAL LEGEND B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 3 4.1 1-1/4
4 9 SMART CITY CP/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 8 7.9 1-3/4
5 3 PRINCE ALEX Closed strongly CP/XB/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte 1 12.0 2-3/4
6 12 JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · D Eustace 2 3.9 2-3/4
7 2 GLORIOUS JOURNEY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 10 15.0 3-3/4
8 11 MEEPMEEP Closed strongly PC-/E/B2/TT Z Purton · J Size 9 14.0 5
9 6 TURIN WARRIOR XB L Ferraris · K L Man 6 26.0 5-3/4
10 7 ACROSS DA UNIVERSE XB/TT J Orman · P C Ng 4 53.0 7
11 4 SMART TRIO V/TT K C Leung · C W Chang 12 88.0 8-3/4
12 5 OUR LUCKY GLORY TT H Bentley · W Y So 11 29.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED MAJESTY2. MIGHTY STEED+0.5L3. CAPITAL LEGEND+1.25L4. SMART CITY+1.75L5. PRINCE ALEX+2.75L6. JUMBO FORTUNE+2.75L7. GLORIOUS JOURNEY+3.75L8. MEEPMEEP+5L9. TURIN WARRIOR+5.75L10. ACROSS DA UNIVERSE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CAPITAL LEGEND (27.1%) finished 3rd — the winner RED MAJESTY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CAPITAL LEGEND 27.1% 3.69 3
2 9 SMART CITY 16.8% 5.97 4
3 12 JUMBO FORTUNE 15.1% 6.61 6
4 11 MEEPMEEP 7.1% 14.09 8
5 8 MIGHTY STEED 6.7% 14.88 2
6 2 GLORIOUS JOURNEY 6.5% 15.50 7
7 3 PRINCE ALEX 6.1% 16.34 5
8 6 TURIN WARRIOR 4.0% 24.87 9
9 10 RED MAJESTY 3.9% 25.90 1
10 5 OUR LUCKY GLORY 3.2% 31.19 12
11 7 ACROSS DA UNIVERSE 2.7% 36.72 10
12 4 SMART TRIO 0.8% 119.77 11
CAPITAL LEGENDSMART CITYJUMBO FORTUNEMEEPMEEPMIGHTY STEEDGLORIOUS JOURNEYPRINCE ALEXTURIN WARRIORRED MAJESTY — wonOUR LUCKY GLORYACROSS DA UNIVERSESMART TRIO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 163

PLACE

1 16

8 20.5

10 42

QUINELLA

8,10 316.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 45

1,10 113.5

8,10 107

FORECAST

10,8 830

TIERCE

10,8,1 3,785

TRIO

1,8,10 563

FIRST 4

1,8,9,10 783

QUARTET

10,8,1,9 25,781

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

8/4/8 11,798

8/4/10 158,464

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,10/1,8,10 70,125

4TH DOUBLE

4/8 787

4/10 10,857.5