Sha Tin · 2025-09-07 · 10:25
Race 10
Class 3
1400m
Course A
14 runners
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-07 was Class 3 over 1400m. BEAUTY CRESCENT, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with KA YING SUPERB second and SPIRIT OF PEACE third. The winner led throughout. The 2.5 favourite PATCH OF STARS finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BEAUTY CRESCENT Wire to wire B/TT 1.21.56 Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 12 | 8.1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 13 | KA YING SUPERB Closed strongly H/XB M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 2 | 19.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | SPIRIT OF PEACE Closed strongly A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 5 | 9.2 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | ARMOUR WAR EAGLE Closed strongly CP B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 4 | 7.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | TOP GUN Closed strongly V K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 7 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | PATCH OF STARS TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 14 | 2.5 | 2 |
| 7 | 10 | DEVAS TWELVE TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 9 | 19.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | WITHALLMYFAITH Closed strongly XB M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 3 | 48.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 4 | ARIEL B/TT P N Wong · D A Hayes | P N Wong | D A Hayes | 6 | 55.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | ATULLIBIGEAL Closed strongly B/XB H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 8 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | POPE CODY TT J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 1 | 8.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT K De Melo · D A Hayes | K De Melo | D A Hayes | 10 | 53.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 13 | 3 | ANODE B/TT R Kingscote · C S Shum | R Kingscote | C S Shum | 13 | 181.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | FIGHTING MACHINE B/SR E C W Wong · P C Ng | E C W Wong | P C Ng | 11 | 42.0 | 5-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick PATCH OF STARS (30.5%) finished 6th — the winner BEAUTY CRESCENT was rated #6.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PATCH OF STARS | 30.5% | 3.28 | 6 |
| 2 | 5 | POPE CODY | 17.5% | 5.72 | 11 |
| 3 | 11 | SPIRIT OF PEACE | 9.7% | 10.34 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | ARMOUR WAR EAGLE | 7.0% | 14.32 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | DEVAS TWELVE | 6.5% | 15.50 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | BEAUTY CRESCENT | 5.1% | 19.66 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | TOP GUN | 4.5% | 22.44 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | ATULLIBIGEAL | 4.4% | 22.51 | 10 |
| 9 | 13 | KA YING SUPERB | 3.9% | 25.88 | 2 |
| 10 | 4 | ARIEL | 3.5% | 28.66 | 9 |
| 11 | 14 | FIGHTING MACHINE | 2.3% | 44.10 | 14 |
| 12 | 12 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 2.2% | 45.51 | 12 |
| 13 | 9 | WITHALLMYFAITH | 1.9% | 51.40 | 8 |
| 14 | 3 | ANODE | 1.2% | 83.53 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.