Sha Tin · 2025-09-07 · 08:15
Race 6
Class 4
1200m
Course A
14 runners
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-07 was Class 4 over 1200m. SPICY STANDARD, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by 2, with AURORA PATCH second and INVINCIBLE IBIS third. The 2.2 favourite INVINCIBLE IBIS finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SPICY STANDARD P- 1.08.67 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 7 | 34.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | AURORA PATCH V/TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 13 | 5.3 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | INVINCIBLE IBIS CP1 L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 5 | 2.2 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | GOOD FORTUNE TT1 J Orman · P C Ng | J Orman | P C Ng | 10 | 149.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | KING OBERON B E C W Wong · D J Whyte | E C W Wong | D J Whyte | 8 | 7.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE B/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 6 | 80.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | CHINA WIN Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 3 | 6.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | LEGEND STAR CP/TT A Atzeni · C S Shum | A Atzeni | C S Shum | 11 | 43.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | AWESOME TREASURE CP/TT P N Wong · D A Hayes | P N Wong | D A Hayes | 1 | 9.3 | 6 |
| 10 | 2 | ABSOLUTE HONOUR B1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 181.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | SMART TRIO V/TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 14 | 187.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | YOUNG STRIKER TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 12 | 214.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 11 | NO OTHER CHOICE H/TT R Kingscote · C Fownes | R Kingscote | C Fownes | 2 | 89.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 14 | 14 | CIRCUIT VICTORY B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 4 | 16.0 | 10-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick CHINA WIN (37.0%) finished 7th — the winner SPICY STANDARD was rated #7.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHINA WIN | 37.0% | 2.71 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | INVINCIBLE IBIS | 18.0% | 5.57 | 3 |
| 3 | 5 | AWESOME TREASURE | 12.3% | 8.11 | 9 |
| 4 | 12 | KING OBERON | 8.9% | 11.25 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | AURORA PATCH | 4.1% | 24.66 | 2 |
| 6 | 14 | CIRCUIT VICTORY | 3.5% | 28.78 | 14 |
| 7 | 8 | SPICY STANDARD | 3.3% | 30.04 | 1 |
| 8 | 13 | LEGEND STAR | 2.6% | 38.66 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE | 2.4% | 41.93 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | NO OTHER CHOICE | 2.1% | 48.21 | 13 |
| 11 | 7 | GOOD FORTUNE | 1.9% | 53.96 | 4 |
| 12 | 2 | ABSOLUTE HONOUR | 1.6% | 63.29 | 10 |
| 13 | 10 | YOUNG STRIKER | 1.3% | 78.83 | 12 |
| 14 | 9 | SMART TRIO | 1.3% | 79.34 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 5
Race 7 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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