Sha Tin · 2025-09-07 · 07:25
Race 5
Class 4
1400m
Course A
14 runners
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-07 was Class 4 over 1400m. THE HEIR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with GALE SAGA second and DO YOUR PART third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite DO YOUR PART finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | THE HEIR Closed strongly 1.21.40 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 4.4 | SH |
| 2 | 13 | GALE SAGA Closed strongly B2/TT- K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 6 | 19.0 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | DO YOUR PART XB/TT K De Melo · K W Lui | K De Melo | K W Lui | 7 | 3.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | ABSOLUTE AWAKENED Closed strongly TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 14 | 110.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 14 | SPANGLE FORTUNE Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 10 | 63.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | SIGHT DREAMER Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 3 | 8.7 | 5 |
| 7 | 10 | BULL ATTITUDE B L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 9 | 7.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | CALIFORNIA BAY Led early CP1/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 13 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | ONE AND ONLY CP1/XB1/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 1 | 135.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | CARRYON SMILING Closed strongly CP/TT R Kingscote · W Y So | R Kingscote | W Y So | 2 | 15.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | YIU CHEUNG VICTORY SR Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 11 | 86.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 11 | LUCKY MAN BO/H L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 12 | 8.6 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 4 | SUNSET TRAIL XB/TT Z Purton · D Eustace | Z Purton | D Eustace | 5 | 15.0 | 18-1/4 |
| 14 | 8 | CASA RUBICK B/TT E C W Wong · J Richards | E C W Wong | J Richards | 4 | 240.0 | 55-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick DO YOUR PART (18.6%) finished 3rd — the winner THE HEIR was rated #3.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | DO YOUR PART | 18.6% | 5.39 | 3 |
| 2 | 12 | SIGHT DREAMER | 16.1% | 6.20 | 6 |
| 3 | 6 | THE HEIR | 12.5% | 8.02 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | BULL ATTITUDE | 11.9% | 8.41 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | CALIFORNIA BAY | 10.3% | 9.75 | 8 |
| 6 | 4 | SUNSET TRAIL | 7.3% | 13.69 | 13 |
| 7 | 13 | GALE SAGA | 4.6% | 21.90 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | LUCKY MAN | 4.1% | 24.54 | 12 |
| 9 | 14 | SPANGLE FORTUNE | 3.6% | 27.50 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | CARRYON SMILING | 3.5% | 28.18 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | YIU CHEUNG VICTORY | 3.2% | 31.14 | 11 |
| 12 | 3 | ABSOLUTE AWAKENED | 1.8% | 54.93 | 4 |
| 13 | 8 | CASA RUBICK | 1.3% | 75.23 | 14 |
| 14 | 5 | ONE AND ONLY | 1.2% | 83.28 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 4
Race 6 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m
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