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Happy Valley · 2025-09-10 · 12:40

Race 4

Class 4 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-09-10 was Class 4 over 1650m. TO INFINITY, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Richards, won by SH, with MIGHTY STEED second and THE AUSPICIOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite MIGHTY STEED finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.40.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 TO INFINITY Closed strongly CP 1.40.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Richards 6 35.0 SH
2 5 MIGHTY STEED Closed strongly CP C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 1.9 SH
3 8 THE AUSPICIOUS Closed strongly H J Orman · Y S Tsui 1 6.9 1-1/4
4 6 SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 8 11.0 1-1/4
5 3 TAKE ACTION Closed strongly H- K Teetan · J Size 2 22.0 2-1/4
6 4 PRINCE ALEX Closed strongly CP/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 4 15.0 4
7 11 CELESTIAL HARMONY TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 5 9.3 4
8 7 GLORIOUS RYDER Closed strongly XB-/CP1 L Hewitson · D Eustace 10 169.0 4
9 1 GOOD LUCK BABE Led early TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 9.2 4-1/2
10 2 SHANGHAI STYLE B/TT2 E C W Wong · C S Shum 11 55.0 8
11 9 SOARING BRONCO PC/TT B Avdulla · P C Ng 7 11.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TO INFINITY2. MIGHTY STEED+0.1L3. THE AUSPICIOUS+1.25L4. SETANTA+1.25L5. TAKE ACTION+2.25L6. PRINCE ALEX+4L7. CELESTIAL HARMONY+4L8. GLORIOUS RYDER+4L9. GOOD LUCK BABE+4.5L10. SHANGHAI STYLE+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MIGHTY STEED (25.3%) finished 2nd — the winner TO INFINITY was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MIGHTY STEED 25.3% 3.96 2
2 8 THE AUSPICIOUS 15.1% 6.63 3
3 6 SETANTA 11.7% 8.58 4
4 1 GOOD LUCK BABE 11.3% 8.88 9
5 3 TAKE ACTION 9.8% 10.16 5
6 9 SOARING BRONCO 9.6% 10.38 11
7 11 CELESTIAL HARMONY 4.8% 21.04 7
8 2 SHANGHAI STYLE 4.5% 22.29 10
9 4 PRINCE ALEX 3.8% 26.00 6
10 10 TO INFINITY 3.1% 31.81 1
11 7 GLORIOUS RYDER 1.1% 94.89 8
MIGHTY STEEDTHE AUSPICIOUSSETANTAGOOD LUCK BABETAKE ACTIONSOARING BRONCOCELESTIAL HARMONYSHANGHAI STYLEPRINCE ALEXTO INFINITY — wonGLORIOUS RYDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 356.5

PLACE

5 10.1

8 22.5

10 63

QUINELLA

5,10 296

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 28.5

5,10 105

8,10 292.5

FORECAST

10,5 866

TIERCE

10,5,8 6,951

TRIO

5,8,10 658

FIRST 4

5,6,8,10 762

QUARTET

10,5,8,6 34,201

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,9/5,8,10 31,724

3RD DOUBLE

9/5 33.5

9/10 3,951.5