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Happy Valley · 2025-09-10 · 20:36

Race 4

Class 4 1650m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 TO INFINITY Closed strongly CP 1.40.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Richards 6 35.0 SH
2 5 MIGHTY STEED Closed strongly CP C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 1.9 SH
3 8 THE AUSPICIOUS Closed strongly H J Orman · Y S Tsui 1 6.9 1-1/4
4 6 SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 8 11.0 1-1/4
5 3 TAKE ACTION Closed strongly H- K Teetan · J Size 2 22.0 2-1/4
6 4 PRINCE ALEX Closed strongly CP/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 4 15.0 4
7 11 CELESTIAL HARMONY TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 5 9.3 4
8 7 GLORIOUS RYDER Closed strongly XB-/CP1 L Hewitson · D Eustace 10 169.0 4
9 1 GOOD LUCK BABE Led early TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 9.2 4-1/2
10 2 SHANGHAI STYLE B/TT2 E C W Wong · C S Shum 11 55.0 8
11 9 SOARING BRONCO PC/TT B Avdulla · P C Ng 7 11.0 9

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-09-10 was Class 4 over 1650m. TO INFINITY, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Richards, won by SH, with MIGHTY STEED second and THE AUSPICIOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite MIGHTY STEED finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TO INFINITY—2. MIGHTY STEED+0.1L3. THE AUSPICIOUS+1.25L4. SETANTA+1.25L5. TAKE ACTION+2.25L6. PRINCE ALEX+4L7. CELESTIAL HARMONY+4L8. GLORIOUS RYDER+4L9. GOOD LUCK BABE+4.5L10. SHANGHAI STYLE+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MIGHTY STEED (25.3%) finished 2nd — the winner TO INFINITY was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MIGHTY STEED 25.3% 3.96 2
2 8 THE AUSPICIOUS 15.1% 6.63 3
3 6 SETANTA 11.7% 8.58 4
4 1 GOOD LUCK BABE 11.3% 8.88 9
5 3 TAKE ACTION 9.8% 10.16 5
6 9 SOARING BRONCO 9.6% 10.38 11
7 11 CELESTIAL HARMONY 4.8% 21.04 7
8 2 SHANGHAI STYLE 4.5% 22.29 10
9 4 PRINCE ALEX 3.8% 26.00 6
10 10 TO INFINITY 3.1% 31.81 1
11 7 GLORIOUS RYDER 1.1% 94.89 8
MIGHTY STEEDTHE AUSPICIOUSSETANTAGOOD LUCK BABETAKE ACTIONSOARING BRONCOCELESTIAL HARMONYSHANGHAI STYLEPRINCE ALEXTO INFINITY — wonGLORIOUS RYDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 356.5

PLACE

5 10.1

8 22.5

10 63

QUINELLA

5,10 296

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 28.5

5,10 105

8,10 292.5

FORECAST

10,5 866

TIERCE

10,5,8 6,951

TRIO

5,8,10 658

FIRST 4

5,6,8,10 762

QUARTET

10,5,8,6 34,201

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,9/5,8,10 31,724

3RD DOUBLE

9/5 33.5

9/10 3,951.5