Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2025-09-10 · 12:10

Race 3

Class 4 1000m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-09-10 was Class 4 over 1000m. HARMONY FIRE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with MASTER CHAMPION second and MOON ROCKET third. The 3.4 favourite MASTER CHAMPION finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.57.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 HARMONY FIRE B/TT 0.57.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte 10 10.0 N
2 1 MASTER CHAMPION CP-/TT- K Teetan · C S Shum 1 3.4 N
3 2 MOON ROCKET B1/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 8 7.6 N
4 4 GRAND NOVA E H Bowman · J Size 5 6.8 1
5 7 SERGEANT PEPPER K C Leung · Y S Tsui 11 22.0 1
6 3 SUPER SIXTY H/P E C W Wong · C Fownes 3 11.0 1-1/4
7 5 PLENTIFUL XB/TT C L Chau · P C Ng 2 5.2 1-3/4
8 12 HAPPY BOYS XB L Hewitson · M Newnham 4 5.8 1-3/4
9 11 THOUSAND CUPS TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 9 100.0 4-1/2
10 6 CRYSTAL POWERFUL B/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 6 36.0 6-3/4
11 8 GALLANT REX TT D Probert · D A Hayes 12 187.0 7-1/2
12 10 ROMANTIC PARTY B R Kingscote · P F Yiu 7 147.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY FIRE2. MASTER CHAMPION+0.05L3. MOON ROCKET+0.05L4. GRAND NOVA+1L5. SERGEANT PEPPER+1L6. SUPER SIXTY+1.25L7. PLENTIFUL+1.75L8. HAPPY BOYS+1.75L9. THOUSAND CUPS+4.5L10. CRYSTAL POWERFUL+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick PLENTIFUL (30.3%) finished 7th — the winner HARMONY FIRE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 PLENTIFUL 30.3% 3.30 7
2 4 GRAND NOVA 22.9% 4.37 4
3 3 SUPER SIXTY 10.0% 10.05 6
4 12 HAPPY BOYS 9.1% 10.94 8
5 9 HARMONY FIRE 7.6% 13.20 1
6 2 MOON ROCKET 6.9% 14.49 3
7 6 CRYSTAL POWERFUL 4.4% 22.82 10
8 7 SERGEANT PEPPER 2.9% 34.87 5
9 1 MASTER CHAMPION 1.8% 54.92 2
10 11 THOUSAND CUPS 1.7% 59.02 9
11 10 ROMANTIC PARTY 1.4% 72.54 12
12 8 GALLANT REX 1.0% 96.55 11
PLENTIFULGRAND NOVASUPER SIXTYHAPPY BOYSHARMONY FIRE — wonMOON ROCKETCRYSTAL POWERFULSERGEANT PEPPERMASTER CHAMPIONTHOUSAND CUPSROMANTIC PARTYGALLANT REX

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 103

PLACE

1 16.5

2 26

9 29.5

QUINELLA

1,9 186.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 65.5

1,9 70

2,9 136.5

FORECAST

9,1 452

TIERCE

9,1,2 3,324

TRIO

1,2,9 569

FIRST 4

1,2,4,9 728

QUARTET

9,1,2,4 17,774

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/1 57

2/9 352.5