Happy Valley · 2025-09-10 · 14:25
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2025-09-10 was Class 4 over 1200m. BIENVENUE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-3/4, with FLYING WROTE second and LUCKY SAM GOR third. The 3.4 favourite LUCKY SAM GOR finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BIENVENUE B 1.10.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 12 | 5.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 9 | FLYING WROTE TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 10 | 3.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 11 | LUCKY SAM GOR CP-/XB A Atzeni · M Newnham | A Atzeni | M Newnham | 7 | 3.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | DENFIELD TT B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 11 | 35.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | VIGOR ELLEEGANT TT Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 5 | 25.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | RUN RUN SMART CP-/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 9 | 42.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | THUNDER PRINCE E/TT H Bowman · W Y So | H Bowman | W Y So | 8 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | GREAT SPIRIT CP M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 3 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | METAL KING CP K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 6 | 67.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | GLORY B CP L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 6.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | MOTOMAN PC-/CP2/TT J Orman · P C Ng | J Orman | P C Ng | 2 | 23.0 | 8 |
| — | 1 | CHARMING BABE C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BIENVENUE | 18.4% | 5.42 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | LUCKY SAM GOR | 15.1% | 6.63 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | GLORY B | 13.3% | 7.52 | 10 |
| 4 | 7 | THUNDER PRINCE | 12.4% | 8.07 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | FLYING WROTE | 8.9% | 11.24 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | GREAT SPIRIT | 8.6% | 11.59 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 | MOTOMAN | 5.7% | 17.66 | 11 |
| 8 | 10 | VIGOR ELLEEGANT | 5.5% | 18.06 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | DENFIELD | 5.1% | 19.64 | 4 |
| 10 | 8 | RUN RUN SMART | 3.7% | 27.22 | 6 |
| 11 | 12 | METAL KING | 3.3% | 30.27 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 56.5
PLACE
2 18
9 15
11 15
QUINELLA
2,9 126.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 46
2,11 41
9,11 26
FORECAST
2,9 271
TIERCE
2,9,11 834
TRIO
2,9,11 116
FIRST 4
2,4,9,11 590
QUARTET
2,9,11,4 12,889
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
7/2 582
7/9 107.5