Happy Valley · 2025-09-10 · 13:15
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-09-10 was Class 3 over 1650m. WROTE A NEW PAGE, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with HIGHLAND RAHY second and I CAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite HIGHLAND RAHY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | WROTE A NEW PAGE Closed strongly TT 1.39.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 7 | 8.7 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | HIGHLAND RAHY Led early B/TT Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 1 | 2.1 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | I CAN Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 9 | 44.0 | SH |
| 4 | 1 | EMBRACES Closed strongly TT C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 10 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | CASA ROCHESTER Closed strongly M Chadwick · M Newnham | M Chadwick | M Newnham | 4 | 17.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | OUTGATE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 7.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | NOBLE PURSUIT TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 2 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | S J TOURBILLON CP/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip | E C W Wong | C H Yip | 6 | 22.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 5 | HARMONY GALAXY TT B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 5 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | GREY CHARGER XB/TT D Probert · D Eustace | D Probert | D Eustace | 11 | 142.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | SAMARKAND CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 8 | 8.1 | 6-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HIGHLAND RAHY | 46.6% | 2.15 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | HARMONY GALAXY | 10.6% | 9.40 | 9 |
| 3 | 9 | WROTE A NEW PAGE | 8.5% | 11.83 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | OUTGATE | 7.3% | 13.73 | 6 |
| 5 | 8 | S J TOURBILLON | 6.3% | 15.92 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | CASA ROCHESTER | 5.7% | 17.69 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | SAMARKAND | 5.0% | 19.81 | 11 |
| 8 | 1 | EMBRACES | 4.2% | 23.68 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | I CAN | 3.0% | 33.85 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | NOBLE PURSUIT | 2.0% | 49.18 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | GREY CHARGER | 0.8% | 119.68 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 87
PLACE
2 13.5
3 93.5
9 23.5
QUINELLA
2,9 83
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 188
2,9 37.5
3,9 416.5
FORECAST
9,2 249
TIERCE
9,2,3 5,265
TRIO
2,3,9 732
FIRST 4
1,2,3,9 998
QUARTET
9,2,3,1 27,376
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
9/10/2 2,520
9/10/9 35,930
4TH DOUBLE
10/2 207.5
10/9 3,385.5