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Happy Valley · 2025-09-10 · 13:15

Race 5

Class 3 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-09-10 was Class 3 over 1650m. WROTE A NEW PAGE, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with HIGHLAND RAHY second and I CAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite HIGHLAND RAHY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 WROTE A NEW PAGE Closed strongly TT 1.39.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C S Shum 7 8.7 SH
2 2 HIGHLAND RAHY Led early B/TT Z Purton · K W Lui 1 2.1 SH
3 3 I CAN Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 9 44.0 SH
4 1 EMBRACES Closed strongly TT C L Chau · W K Mo 10 12.0 1-1/4
5 10 CASA ROCHESTER Closed strongly M Chadwick · M Newnham 4 17.0 1-1/4
6 6 OUTGATE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 7.6 1-1/4
7 7 NOBLE PURSUIT TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 2 12.0 2-3/4
8 8 S J TOURBILLON CP/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip 6 22.0 4
9 5 HARMONY GALAXY TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 5 14.0 4-3/4
10 4 GREY CHARGER XB/TT D Probert · D Eustace 11 142.0 5-3/4
11 11 SAMARKAND CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 8.1 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WROTE A NEW PAGE2. HIGHLAND RAHY+0.1L3. I CAN+0.1L4. EMBRACES+1.25L5. CASA ROCHESTER+1.25L6. OUTGATE+1.25L7. NOBLE PURSUIT+2.75L8. S J TOURBILLON+4L9. HARMONY GALAXY+4.75L10. GREY CHARGER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick HIGHLAND RAHY (46.6%) finished 2nd — the winner WROTE A NEW PAGE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 HIGHLAND RAHY 46.6% 2.15 2
2 5 HARMONY GALAXY 10.6% 9.40 9
3 9 WROTE A NEW PAGE 8.5% 11.83 1
4 6 OUTGATE 7.3% 13.73 6
5 8 S J TOURBILLON 6.3% 15.92 8
6 10 CASA ROCHESTER 5.7% 17.69 5
7 11 SAMARKAND 5.0% 19.81 11
8 1 EMBRACES 4.2% 23.68 4
9 3 I CAN 3.0% 33.85 3
10 7 NOBLE PURSUIT 2.0% 49.18 7
11 4 GREY CHARGER 0.8% 119.68 10
HIGHLAND RAHYHARMONY GALAXYWROTE A NEW PAGE — wonOUTGATES J TOURBILLONCASA ROCHESTERSAMARKANDEMBRACESI CANNOBLE PURSUITGREY CHARGER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 87

PLACE

2 13.5

3 93.5

9 23.5

QUINELLA

2,9 83

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 188

2,9 37.5

3,9 416.5

FORECAST

9,2 249

TIERCE

9,2,3 5,265

TRIO

2,3,9 732

FIRST 4

1,2,3,9 998

QUARTET

9,2,3,1 27,376

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

9/10/2 2,520

9/10/9 35,930

4TH DOUBLE

10/2 207.5

10/9 3,385.5