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Sha Tin · 2025-09-14 · 22:05

Race 4

Class 4 1400m Course B 11 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-14 was Class 4 over 1400m. SUGAR BALL, ridden by K C Leung and trained by W K Mo, won by N, with TOP TIME second and RAGING RAPIDS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite BETTER AND BETTER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.21.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SUGAR BALL Closed strongly TT 1.21.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · W K Mo 11 5.5 N
2 2 TOP TIME Closed strongly K De Melo · W Y So 7 11.0 N
3 3 RAGING RAPIDS Closed strongly TT K Teetan · J Size 8 10.0 1/2
4 8 ROMAN CROWN Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · P C Ng 5 7.6 1
5 6 BETTER AND BETTER H Z Purton · F C Lor 1 2.5 1-3/4
6 10 WINNING MACHINE Led early TT C L Chau · C S Shum 6 5.2 3-3/4
7 7 DASHING DRAGON Closed strongly B/TT1 J Orman · D A Hayes 4 30.0 3-3/4
8 4 SECOND TO NONE C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 17.0 4-1/4
9 5 BIG STRIDE TT1 A Atzeni · J Richards 9 101.0 5-1/4
10 11 DEAL COMPLETED P-/XB-/B2/TT2 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 3 47.0 28-1/4
11 9 BILLION TWO B/TT Y L Chung · K H Ting 10 109.0 40-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUGAR BALL2. TOP TIME+0.05L3. RAGING RAPIDS+0.5L4. ROMAN CROWN+1L5. BETTER AND BETTER+1.75L6. WINNING MACHINE+3.75L7. DASHING DRAGON+3.75L8. SECOND TO NONE+4.25L9. BIG STRIDE+5.25L10. DEAL COMPLETED+28.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick BETTER AND BETTER (29.9%) finished 5th — the winner SUGAR BALL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 BETTER AND BETTER 29.9% 3.35 5
2 8 ROMAN CROWN 17.7% 5.64 4
3 1 SUGAR BALL 15.1% 6.64 1
4 3 RAGING RAPIDS 14.2% 7.06 3
5 2 TOP TIME 7.3% 13.73 2
6 10 WINNING MACHINE 5.1% 19.60 6
7 4 SECOND TO NONE 3.8% 26.50 8
8 7 DASHING DRAGON 3.0% 32.93 7
9 11 DEAL COMPLETED 1.5% 66.22 10
10 5 BIG STRIDE 1.5% 68.03 9
11 9 BILLION TWO 1.0% 99.72 11
BETTER AND BETTERROMAN CROWNSUGAR BALL — wonRAGING RAPIDSTOP TIMEWINNING MACHINESECOND TO NONEDASHING DRAGONDEAL COMPLETEDBIG STRIDEBILLION TWO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 55.5

PLACE

1 17.5

2 26.5

3 23.5

QUINELLA

1,2 257.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 78.5

1,3 72

2,3 85.5

FORECAST

1,2 459

TIERCE

1,2,3 1,663

TRIO

1,2,3 313

FIRST 4

1,2,3,8 379

QUARTET

1,2,3,8 8,424

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,6/1,2,3 19,876

3RD DOUBLE

1/1 179

1/2 44