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Sha Tin · 2025-09-14 · 07:05

Race 5

Class 4 1400m Course B 11 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-14 was Class 4 over 1400m. MAX QUE, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-1/2, with AEROINVINCIBLE second and NO OTHER CHOICE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MAX QUE Closed strongly TT 1.21.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · M Newnham 1 2.9 1-1/2
2 5 AEROINVINCIBLE Led early H/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 11 8.3 1-1/2
3 10 NO OTHER CHOICE H-/TT D Probert · C Fownes 9 125.0 1-1/2
4 8 POSITIVE SMILE Closed strongly TT1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 15.0 2
5 9 STRATHPEFFER Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 4.5 2-3/4
6 6 FANTASTIC FUN XB/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 3 7.1 3
7 7 SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly H B Avdulla · J Size 5 24.0 5
8 1 RAGGA BOMB Closed strongly XB R Kingscote · D Eustace 8 20.0 5
9 2 FORERUNNER TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 7 10.0 5-1/2
10 11 CELTIC TIMES B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 4 18.0 7-3/4
11 3 ENJOY GOLF B-/V2 H Bentley · F C Lor 2 11.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAX QUE2. AEROINVINCIBLE+1.5L3. NO OTHER CHOICE+1.5L4. POSITIVE SMILE+2L5. STRATHPEFFER+2.75L6. FANTASTIC FUN+3L7. SIMPLE HEDGE+5L8. RAGGA BOMB+5L9. FORERUNNER+5.5L10. CELTIC TIMES+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MAX QUE (25.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MAX QUE 25.2% 3.96 1
2 9 STRATHPEFFER 13.6% 7.35 5
3 6 FANTASTIC FUN 13.0% 7.68 6
4 3 ENJOY GOLF 11.3% 8.85 11
5 5 AEROINVINCIBLE 8.6% 11.68 2
6 2 FORERUNNER 7.4% 13.50 9
7 7 SIMPLE HEDGE 6.3% 15.79 7
8 8 POSITIVE SMILE 5.4% 18.49 4
9 11 CELTIC TIMES 4.7% 21.48 10
10 1 RAGGA BOMB 2.6% 38.71 8
11 10 NO OTHER CHOICE 1.9% 52.60 3
MAX QUE — wonSTRATHPEFFERFANTASTIC FUNENJOY GOLFAEROINVINCIBLEFORERUNNERSIMPLE HEDGEPOSITIVE SMILECELTIC TIMESRAGGA BOMBNO OTHER CHOICE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 29.5

PLACE

4 14.5

5 29

10 238.5

QUINELLA

4,5 137.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 54.5

4,10 562

5,10 1,394

FORECAST

4,5 270

TIERCE

4,5,10 14,303

TRIO

4,5,10 5,010

FIRST 4

4,5,8,10 12,058

QUARTET

4,5,10,8 129,712

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/1/4 779

1/1/5 472

4TH DOUBLE

1/4 192

1/5 147.5