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Sha Tin · 2025-09-14 · 09:15

Race 9

Class 3 1200m 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-14 was Class 3 over 1200m. PACKING BOLE, ridden by P N Wong and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/2, with MR ENERGIA second and MOJAVE DESERT third. Victory came as the 5.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 PACKING BOLE CP/TT 1.08.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) P N Wong · C S Shum 10 5.2 1-1/2
2 10 MR ENERGIA B M F Poon · D J Hall 3 7.1 1-1/2
3 8 MOJAVE DESERT B/XB A Atzeni · M Newnham 5 13.0 2-3/4
4 4 BUNDLE OF CHARM P2 H Bowman · J Size 11 25.0 3-3/4
5 5 DRAGON AIR FORCE TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 1 12.0 3-3/4
6 9 HAROLD WIN V/XB C L Chau · K W Lui 7 7.1 5-1/4
7 6 SOLID SHALAA B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 6 6.6 5-3/4
8 1 MUST GO E/PC/TT B Avdulla · J Size 8 25.0 8
9 7 MASK RIDER B/TT Z Purton · W Y So 2 5.7 9-1/4
10 2 GUMMY GUMMY B L Ferraris · C W Chang 9 6.7 9-3/4
11 12 ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 4 86.0 12-3/4
12 11 CAMP LAND TT1 A Badel · J Richards 12 74.0 24-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING BOLE2. MR ENERGIA+1.5L3. MOJAVE DESERT+2.75L4. BUNDLE OF CHARM+3.75L5. DRAGON AIR FORCE+3.75L6. HAROLD WIN+5.25L7. SOLID SHALAA+5.75L8. MUST GO+8L9. MASK RIDER+9.25L10. GUMMY GUMMY+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MOJAVE DESERT (14.8%) finished 3rd — the winner PACKING BOLE was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 MOJAVE DESERT 14.8% 6.76 3
2 7 MASK RIDER 13.5% 7.41 9
3 6 SOLID SHALAA 13.0% 7.71 7
4 5 DRAGON AIR FORCE 11.5% 8.66 5
5 9 HAROLD WIN 10.8% 9.23 6
6 2 GUMMY GUMMY 7.2% 13.96 10
7 3 PACKING BOLE 7.0% 14.22 1
8 10 MR ENERGIA 6.4% 15.60 2
9 4 BUNDLE OF CHARM 6.2% 16.02 4
10 1 MUST GO 4.7% 21.37 8
11 11 CAMP LAND 2.8% 35.23 12
12 12 ORIENTAL SMOKE 2.0% 49.62 11
MOJAVE DESERTMASK RIDERSOLID SHALAADRAGON AIR FORCEHAROLD WINGUMMY GUMMYPACKING BOLE — wonMR ENERGIABUNDLE OF CHARMMUST GOCAMP LANDORIENTAL SMOKE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 52

PLACE

3 23

8 34.5

10 25.5

QUINELLA

3,10 253.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 146

3,10 90

8,10 122.5

FORECAST

3,10 537

TIERCE

3,10,8 4,171

TRIO

3,8,10 947

FIRST 4

3,4,8,10 3,985

QUARTET

3,10,8,4 75,590

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

10/3 332

10/10 53.5