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Sha Tin · 2025-09-14 · 08:40

Race 8

Class 4 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-14 was Class 4 over 1200m. JUBILANT WINNER, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by J Richards, won by 2-1/2, with VON BAER second and DECISION LINK third. The 2.4 favourite TOURBILLON GOLFER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 JUBILANT WINNER V-/B1/TT 1.08.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · J Richards 7 3.2 2-1/2
2 8 VON BAER B K C Leung · D A Hayes 4 15.0 2-1/2
3 2 DECISION LINK K De Melo · W Y So 6 33.0 2-3/4
4 1 TOURBILLON GOLFER TT Z Purton · P F Yiu 12 2.4 3
5 4 HOT AIR BALLON H Bowman · D J Whyte 13 14.0 3-3/4
6 14 LEGEND STAR CP/TT R Kingscote · C S Shum 2 25.0 4
7 3 GOOD FORTUNE TT J Orman · P C Ng 10 10.0 4-1/2
8 5 HERO SPARK B M F Poon · K L Man 1 103.0 5-1/4
9 11 IRON LEGION TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 137.0 5-3/4
10 6 PATCH OF TIME L Ferraris · M Newnham 3 15.0 6
11 13 COSMO LIGHT TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 8 165.0 7
12 12 BLUE BARON CP/XB/TT A Badel · W K Mo 14 18.0 7-1/4
13 9 CLUB ACE B/TT M L Yeung · J Size 11 35.0 10-3/4
14 7 SUNNY SING SPIRIT K Teetan · W Y So 9 64.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUBILANT WINNER2. VON BAER+2.5L3. DECISION LINK+2.75L4. TOURBILLON GOLFER+3L5. HOT AIR BALLON+3.75L6. LEGEND STAR+4L7. GOOD FORTUNE+4.5L8. HERO SPARK+5.25L9. IRON LEGION+5.75L10. PATCH OF TIME+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick TOURBILLON GOLFER (32.8%) finished 4th — the winner JUBILANT WINNER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 TOURBILLON GOLFER 32.8% 3.05 4
2 8 VON BAER 10.2% 9.78 2
3 4 HOT AIR BALLON 9.1% 10.93 5
4 3 GOOD FORTUNE 8.9% 11.24 7
5 10 JUBILANT WINNER 7.8% 12.76 1
6 6 PATCH OF TIME 7.6% 13.15 10
7 9 CLUB ACE 4.9% 20.55 13
8 12 BLUE BARON 4.0% 24.96 12
9 7 SUNNY SING SPIRIT 3.7% 26.99 14
10 14 LEGEND STAR 3.5% 28.30 6
11 2 DECISION LINK 3.0% 33.36 3
12 11 IRON LEGION 1.8% 56.06 9
13 13 COSMO LIGHT 1.5% 65.36 11
14 5 HERO SPARK 1.1% 89.95 8
TOURBILLON GOLFERVON BAERHOT AIR BALLONGOOD FORTUNEJUBILANT WINNER — wonPATCH OF TIMECLUB ACEBLUE BARONSUNNY SING SPIRITLEGEND STARDECISION LINKIRON LEGIONCOSMO LIGHTHERO SPARK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 32.5

PLACE

2 83

8 35.5

10 14

QUINELLA

8,10 200.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 430

2,10 170.5

8,10 66

FORECAST

10,8 387

TIERCE

10,8,2 8,001

TRIO

2,8,10 1,999

FIRST 4

1,2,8,10 1,108

QUARTET

10,8,2,1 37,550

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,9/2,8,10 124,012

7TH DOUBLE

9/8 314

9/10 818