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Sha Tin · 2025-09-21 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 1800m Course C 10 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-21 was Class 5 over 1800m. HAKKA RADIANCE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with YEABOI second and SMASHING EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite MR ALADDIN finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.50.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 HAKKA RADIANCE Closed strongly TT 1.50.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum 8 5.3 1/2
2 10 YEABOI Closed strongly CP-/TT M F Poon · C W Chang 5 27.0 1/2
3 6 SMASHING EXPRESS Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size 6 16.0 1-1/4
4 1 STORM RUNNER Closed strongly TT Z Purton · P C Ng 10 4.0 1-1/4
5 5 CHATEAU LE PECHE Closed strongly B C L Chau · K H Ting 3 9.5 2-1/4
6 4 LEATHER MASTER CP C Y Ho · K L Man 2 11.0 2-1/4
7 8 MR ALADDIN Closed strongly H/PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng 4 3.2 2-1/2
8 2 GOLDEN FAIRY Led early L Hewitson · W Y So 1 14.0 3
9 9 SUPER HONG KONG V/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 9 12.0 5
10 7 COLOURFUL BARON B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 7 40.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAKKA RADIANCE2. YEABOI+0.5L3. SMASHING EXPRESS+1.25L4. STORM RUNNER+1.25L5. CHATEAU LE PECHE+2.25L6. LEATHER MASTER+2.25L7. MR ALADDIN+2.5L8. GOLDEN FAIRY+3L9. SUPER HONG KONG+5L10. COLOURFUL BARON+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MR ALADDIN (25.8%) finished 7th — the winner HAKKA RADIANCE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 MR ALADDIN 25.8% 3.88 7
2 1 STORM RUNNER 23.5% 4.25 4
3 3 HAKKA RADIANCE 13.3% 7.53 1
4 5 CHATEAU LE PECHE 8.5% 11.81 5
5 9 SUPER HONG KONG 6.3% 15.84 9
6 6 SMASHING EXPRESS 6.2% 16.05 3
7 2 GOLDEN FAIRY 5.9% 17.09 8
8 4 LEATHER MASTER 4.1% 24.51 6
9 10 YEABOI 3.3% 30.52 2
10 7 COLOURFUL BARON 3.2% 31.53 10
MR ALADDINSTORM RUNNERHAKKA RADIANCE — wonCHATEAU LE PECHESUPER HONG KONGSMASHING EXPRESSGOLDEN FAIRYLEATHER MASTERYEABOICOLOURFUL BARON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 53

PLACE

3 18

6 41.5

10 62.5

QUINELLA

3,10 670

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 108

3,10 188.5

6,10 562.5

FORECAST

3,10 1,172

TIERCE

3,10,6 16,238

TRIO

3,6,10 3,558

FIRST 4

1,3,6,10 3,063

QUARTET

3,10,6,1 72,283