Sha Tin · 2025-09-21 · 08:40
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-21 was Class 3 over 1650m. MOJAVE DESERT, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-3/4, with ENDEARED second and NEW FOREST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MOJAVE DESERT Closed strongly B/XB 1.38.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · M Newnham | A Atzeni | M Newnham | 1 | 3.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | ENDEARED Closed strongly XB/P2 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 6 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | NEW FOREST Led early TT L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 11 | 5.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | GLORIOUS SUCCESS Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 2 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | RISING FROM ASHES Closed strongly B/TT J Orman · C W Chang | J Orman | C W Chang | 5 | 21.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly PC/TT H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 9 | 35.0 | 8 |
| 7 | 2 | DRAGON AIR FORCE TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 7 | 10.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | ARIEL B/TT P N Wong · D A Hayes | P N Wong | D A Hayes | 10 | 14.0 | 11 |
| 9 | 5 | NEVER PETER OUT V/TT M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 3 | 11.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | CHILL KAKA V Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 8 | 5.2 | 11-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | YOUNG BRILLIANT B K De Melo · C H Yip | K De Melo | C H Yip | 4 | 38.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | KINGDOM OF RICHES H/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 12 | 118.0 | 20-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MOJAVE DESERT | 20.8% | 4.80 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | CHILL KAKA | 17.3% | 5.79 | 10 |
| 3 | 12 | GLORIOUS SUCCESS | 14.9% | 6.71 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | NEW FOREST | 8.5% | 11.81 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | DRAGON AIR FORCE | 8.4% | 11.95 | 7 |
| 6 | 8 | ENDEARED | 7.8% | 12.78 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | RISING FROM ASHES | 5.9% | 17.08 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | ARIEL | 5.6% | 17.72 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | TURIN MASCOT | 4.2% | 24.00 | 6 |
| 10 | 5 | NEVER PETER OUT | 3.7% | 27.37 | 9 |
| 11 | 11 | YOUNG BRILLIANT | 1.7% | 57.40 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | KINGDOM OF RICHES | 1.3% | 79.79 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 33
PLACE
4 14
8 37.5
9 21.5
QUINELLA
4,8 218
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 70.5
4,9 41
8,9 121.5
FORECAST
4,8 325
TIERCE
4,8,9 1,834
TRIO
4,8,9 434
FIRST 4
4,8,9,12 792
QUARTET
4,8,9,12 13,425
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
6,7,14/4,8,9 36,156
7TH DOUBLE
6/4 267
6/8 156