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Sha Tin · 2025-09-21 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-21 was Class 4 over 1200m. EMBLAZON, ridden by C L Chau and trained by W K Mo, won by 1-1/4, with BRIGHT DAY second and PROUD BOX third. The 3.4 favourite PERIDOT finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.10.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 EMBLAZON TT 1.10.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · W K Mo 11 5.7 1-1/4
2 6 BRIGHT DAY B-/V1/TT J Orman · K L Man 6 19.0 1-1/4
3 5 PROUD BOX TT1 H Bowman · W Y So 10 12.0 2
4 2 AWESOME TREASURE CP-/TT P N Wong · D A Hayes 7 12.0 2-1/4
5 4 PERIDOT Z Purton · D J Hall 1 3.4 3-1/4
6 12 ELEGANT LIFE B L Hewitson · C Fownes 2 4.2 4
7 1 AEROVOLANIC CP C Y Ho · P C Ng 3 14.0 4
8 11 DREAMING WINNER CP/H/TT A Atzeni · F C Lor 12 56.0 4-1/2
9 8 FLASH STAR H/TT R Kingscote · C S Shum 9 137.0 4-1/2
10 9 TOP TO SKY K C Leung · C H Yip 8 60.0 5-1/4
11 10 NOBLE FANS B/TT B Avdulla · J Size 5 5.6 8
12 3 BASIC INSTINCT B/TT- D Probert · Y S Tsui 4 90.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EMBLAZON2. BRIGHT DAY+1.25L3. PROUD BOX+2L4. AWESOME TREASURE+2.25L5. PERIDOT+3.25L6. ELEGANT LIFE+4L7. AEROVOLANIC+4L8. DREAMING WINNER+4.5L9. FLASH STAR+4.5L10. TOP TO SKY+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick PERIDOT (32.5%) finished 5th — the winner EMBLAZON was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 PERIDOT 32.5% 3.07 5
2 12 ELEGANT LIFE 16.3% 6.12 6
3 1 AEROVOLANIC 15.6% 6.42 7
4 10 NOBLE FANS 10.1% 9.86 11
5 5 PROUD BOX 6.8% 14.72 3
6 2 AWESOME TREASURE 5.5% 18.19 4
7 7 EMBLAZON 3.8% 26.56 1
8 6 BRIGHT DAY 3.4% 29.61 2
9 11 DREAMING WINNER 2.4% 41.06 8
10 3 BASIC INSTINCT 1.4% 72.77 12
11 9 TOP TO SKY 1.3% 79.18 10
12 8 FLASH STAR 0.9% 112.52 9
PERIDOTELEGANT LIFEAEROVOLANICNOBLE FANSPROUD BOXAWESOME TREASUREEMBLAZON — wonBRIGHT DAYDREAMING WINNERBASIC INSTINCTTOP TO SKYFLASH STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 57.5

PLACE

5 37

6 43

7 21.5

QUINELLA

6,7 620.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 280.5

5,7 120.5

6,7 194

FORECAST

7,6 971

TIERCE

7,6,5 7,392

TRIO

5,6,7 2,173

FIRST 4

2,5,6,7 3,487

QUARTET

7,6,5,2 75,747

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/6 84.5

2/7 407