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Sha Tin · 2025-09-21 · 07:05

Race 5

Class 4 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-09-21 was Class 4 over 1600m. GOOD GOOD, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by N, with PEARL OF PANG'S second and HAPPY UNIVERSE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite STAR BROSE finished 13th.

Result

Official · 1.37.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 GOOD GOOD Closed strongly V-/B2 1.37.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 3 14.0 N
2 7 PEARL OF PANG'S Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 10 7.4 N
3 5 HAPPY UNIVERSE Closed strongly P R Kingscote · K H Ting 8 6.6 1/2
4 11 SPECIAL HEDGE Closed strongly V-/TT L Hewitson · C W Chang 2 7.2 3/4
5 3 BEAUTY VIVA Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 12.0 1-1/4
6 13 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT CP-/V1/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 6 8.9 3-3/4
7 4 WITHOUT DELAY Closed strongly XB/TT J Orman · D Eustace 13 138.0 4
8 14 RADIANT SWIFT B- K Teetan · B Crawford 5 46.0 4-1/4
9 6 MISSION STRIKE Closed strongly B- L Ferraris · M Newnham 4 9.1 4-1/2
10 8 NEWBORN MIRACLE Led early B C Y Ho · P F Yiu 9 11.0 6-1/4
11 12 ACE WAR B-/TT D Probert · D J Whyte 12 55.0 6-3/4
12 1 LUCK IS BACK CP H Bentley · K W Lui 14 32.0 7
13 10 STAR BROSE CP-/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 4.6 8-3/4
14 2 ILLUMINOUS V K De Melo · F C Lor 11 25.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOOD GOOD2. PEARL OF PANG'S+0.05L3. HAPPY UNIVERSE+0.5L4. SPECIAL HEDGE+0.75L5. BEAUTY VIVA+1.25L6. ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT+3.75L7. WITHOUT DELAY+4L8. RADIANT SWIFT+4.25L9. MISSION STRIKE+4.5L10. NEWBORN MIRACLE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick STAR BROSE (18.6%) finished 13th — the winner GOOD GOOD was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 STAR BROSE 18.6% 5.37 13
2 7 PEARL OF PANG'S 17.9% 5.60 2
3 3 BEAUTY VIVA 12.5% 7.98 5
4 5 HAPPY UNIVERSE 10.2% 9.76 3
5 11 SPECIAL HEDGE 7.7% 12.95 4
6 9 GOOD GOOD 6.8% 14.80 1
7 6 MISSION STRIKE 6.3% 15.88 9
8 8 NEWBORN MIRACLE 6.0% 16.78 10
9 1 LUCK IS BACK 3.2% 30.85 12
10 13 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT 2.8% 35.73 6
11 2 ILLUMINOUS 2.8% 36.00 14
12 12 ACE WAR 2.3% 43.15 11
13 4 WITHOUT DELAY 1.5% 67.28 7
14 14 RADIANT SWIFT 1.4% 73.70 8
STAR BROSEPEARL OF PANG'SBEAUTY VIVAHAPPY UNIVERSESPECIAL HEDGEGOOD GOOD — wonMISSION STRIKENEWBORN MIRACLELUCK IS BACKROSEWOOD FLEETFOOTILLUMINOUSACE WARWITHOUT DELAYRADIANT SWIFT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 146.5

PLACE

5 22.5

7 24.5

9 55.5

QUINELLA

7,9 655

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 84

5,9 218.5

7,9 234.5

FORECAST

9,7 1,216

TIERCE

9,7,5 9,435

TRIO

5,7,9 1,478

FIRST 4

5,7,9,11 1,643

QUARTET

9,7,5,11 48,545

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

7/9/7 879

7/9/9 31,408

4TH DOUBLE

9/7 44.5

9/9 1,875.5