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Sha Tin · 2025-10-04 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 1650m 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-04 was Class 5 over 1650m. YODA'S CHOICE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P C Ng, won, with NIGHT PUROSANGUE second and VIVA CHALEUR third. The winner led throughout. The 2.0 favourite VIVA CHALEUR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1:39.50
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 YODA'S CHOICE Wire to wire 1:39.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P C Ng 1 7.0
2 4 NIGHT PUROSANGUE Closed strongly B Avdulla · D A Hayes 8 9.4 3/4
3 7 VIVA CHALEUR Closed strongly Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 2.0 3/4
4 9 EURO ROCKS Closed strongly C L Chau · C H Yip 9 9.2 6-3/4
5 11 GO GO GO Closed strongly D Probert · W Y So 4 33.0 9-3/4
6 1 LOADED WITH FLUKE P N Wong · K H Ting 11 46.0 11-3/4
7 8 ALL EYES ON ME Closed strongly M L Yeung · C W Chang 5 147.0 11-3/4
8 13 MR ALADDIN Closed strongly H Bentley · P C Ng 10 30.0 12
9 12 COOL BLUE Closed strongly M Chadwick · W Y So 7 22.0 12-1/2
10 5 TEAM HAPPY Closed strongly K Teetan · P C Ng 6 15.0 12-1/2
11 6 VERBIER E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 20.0 16
12 10 SPORTIC WARRIOR H T Mo · C W Chang 12 191.0 20-1/4
13 2 SPANGLE FORTUNE Z Purton · K L Man 13 8.6 ML

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YODA'S CHOICE2. NIGHT PUROSANGUE+0.75L3. VIVA CHALEUR+0.75L4. EURO ROCKS+6.75L5. GO GO GO+9.75L6. LOADED WITH FLUKE+11.75L7. ALL EYES ON ME+11.75L8. MR ALADDIN+12L9. COOL BLUE+12.5L10. TEAM HAPPY+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick VIVA CHALEUR (15.2%) finished 3rd — the winner YODA'S CHOICE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 VIVA CHALEUR 15.2% 6.56 3
2 2 SPANGLE FORTUNE 12.9% 7.76 13
3 4 NIGHT PUROSANGUE 12.3% 8.13 2
4 9 EURO ROCKS 11.5% 8.73 4
5 12 COOL BLUE 9.6% 10.41 9
6 6 VERBIER 8.8% 11.40 11
7 13 MR ALADDIN 8.7% 11.45 8
8 5 TEAM HAPPY 7.6% 13.17 10
9 11 GO GO GO 4.9% 20.49 5
10 3 YODA'S CHOICE 3.0% 33.26 1
11 1 LOADED WITH FLUKE 2.5% 40.58 6
12 8 ALL EYES ON ME 1.6% 63.64 7
13 10 SPORTIC WARRIOR 1.5% 67.10 12
VIVA CHALEURSPANGLE FORTUNENIGHT PUROSANGUEEURO ROCKSCOOL BLUEVERBIERMR ALADDINTEAM HAPPYGO GO GOYODA'S CHOICE — wonLOADED WITH FLUKEALL EYES ON MESPORTIC WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 70.5

PLACE

3 19.5

4 24

7 12.5

QUINELLA

3,4 326

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 99.5

3,7 35

4,7 45.5

FORECAST

3,4 526

TIERCE

3,4,7 1,353

TRIO

3,4,7 171

FIRST 4

3,4,7,9 408

QUARTET

3,4,7,9 11,464