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Sha Tin · 2025-10-04 · 09:50

Race 10

Class 3 1800m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-04 was Class 3 over 1800m. MIGHTY STRENGTH, ridden by H T Mo and trained by P F Yiu, won, with GENTLEMEN LEGACY second and ARIEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite GENTLEMEN LEGACY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:47.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 MIGHTY STRENGTH Closed strongly 1:47.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · P F Yiu 9 56.0
2 4 GENTLEMEN LEGACY Closed strongly Z Purton · A S Cruz 4 2.5 3/4
3 7 ARIEL E C W Wong · D A Hayes 5 38.0 1
4 8 WROTE A NEW PAGE H Bentley · C S Shum 13 10.0 1-1/4
5 9 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly C L Chau · P C Ng 1 45.0 1-1/2
6 12 WITHALLMYFAITH Led early M L Yeung · D A Hayes 6 25.0 1-3/4
7 10 MONEY CATCHER K C Leung · F C Lor 7 8.8 2
8 3 JOY OF SPRING Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 4.7 2-1/4
9 2 CAMBRIDGE Closed strongly H Bowman · P C Ng 12 19.0 2-3/4
10 5 ATULLIBIGEAL Closed strongly J Orman · D J Hall 11 15.0 2-3/4
11 11 S J TOURBILLON K Teetan · C H Yip 10 25.0 3
12 6 ENTHRALLED Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size 14 16.0 3
13 1 BRAVEHEARTS M F Poon · M Newnham 3 14.0 3-1/2
14 13 KING OF SELECTION A Badel · W K Mo 2 99.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIGHTY STRENGTH2. GENTLEMEN LEGACY+0.75L3. ARIEL+1L4. WROTE A NEW PAGE+1.25L5. AESTHETICISM+1.5L6. WITHALLMYFAITH+1.75L7. MONEY CATCHER+2L8. JOY OF SPRING+2.25L9. CAMBRIDGE+2.75L10. ATULLIBIGEAL+2.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick GENTLEMEN LEGACY (37.0%) finished 2nd — the winner MIGHTY STRENGTH was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 GENTLEMEN LEGACY 37.0% 2.70 2
2 3 JOY OF SPRING 14.0% 7.12 8
3 2 CAMBRIDGE 8.2% 12.17 9
4 8 WROTE A NEW PAGE 7.6% 13.17 4
5 1 BRAVEHEARTS 5.2% 19.10 13
6 10 MONEY CATCHER 4.2% 23.59 7
7 6 ENTHRALLED 3.8% 26.62 12
8 11 S J TOURBILLON 3.5% 28.87 11
9 7 ARIEL 3.5% 28.89 3
10 9 AESTHETICISM 2.8% 35.17 5
11 14 MIGHTY STRENGTH 2.7% 36.47 1
12 13 KING OF SELECTION 2.6% 37.87 14
13 5 ATULLIBIGEAL 2.6% 38.36 10
14 12 WITHALLMYFAITH 2.1% 47.40 6
GENTLEMEN LEGACYJOY OF SPRINGCAMBRIDGEWROTE A NEW PAGEBRAVEHEARTSMONEY CATCHERENTHRALLEDS J TOURBILLONARIELAESTHETICISMMIGHTY STRENGTH — wonKING OF SELECTIONATULLIBIGEALWITHALLMYFAITH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 561.5

PLACE

4 13

7 92.5

14 124.5

QUINELLA

4,14 694

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 181

4,14 244

7,14 2,081.5

FORECAST

14,4 2,307

TIERCE

14,4,7 57,253

TRIO

4,7,14 7,007

FIRST 4

4,7,8,14 13,445

QUARTET

14,4,7,8 512,719

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

11/3,8/4 80

11/3,8/14 5,886

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,7,8/4,7,14 81,293

9TH DOUBLE

3,8/4 10.5

3,8/14 564

SIX UP

2,14/4,13/4,9/7,11/3,4,8/4,14 1,635

14/4/9/11/3,8/14 743,458

2 [D A Hayes]

7 [L Ferraris]