Sha Tin · 2025-10-04 · 05:31
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-04 was Class 5 over 1400m. DECRELOT, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D A Hayes, won, with CIRCUIT FIERY second and DRACO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite CIRCUIT FIERY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | DECRELOT Closed strongly 1:22.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 8 | 37.0 | — |
| 2 | 2 | CIRCUIT FIERY Closed strongly Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 14 | 3.0 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | DRACO Closed strongly H Bowman · P F Yiu | H Bowman | P F Yiu | 13 | 5.6 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | ONLY U Closed strongly K C Leung · B Crawford | K C Leung | B Crawford | 2 | 3.3 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | KA YING POWER B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 4 | 20.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | COLONEL K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 1 | 50.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 14 | GANGNAM STAR Closed strongly H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 9 | 33.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | MY FLYING ANGEL Closed strongly A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 10 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 13 | MR GOOD VIBES Closed strongly K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 11 | 22.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | BRAVE OF FRIENDS R Kingscote · D J Whyte | R Kingscote | D J Whyte | 3 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | EXCELLENT DADDY J Orman · C W Chang | J Orman | C W Chang | 6 | 121.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | ISLAND GOLDEN C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 5 | 65.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 10 | LUCKY GENERATIONS E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 7 | 15.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 14 | 12 | MACANESE MASTER Led early M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 12 | 186.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CIRCUIT FIERY | 27.0% | 3.71 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | ONLY U | 23.0% | 4.35 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | DRACO | 9.1% | 11.02 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | LUCKY GENERATIONS | 8.7% | 11.53 | 13 |
| 5 | 3 | MY FLYING ANGEL | 7.8% | 12.75 | 8 |
| 6 | 13 | MR GOOD VIBES | 3.6% | 27.72 | 9 |
| 7 | 7 | ISLAND GOLDEN | 3.5% | 28.25 | 12 |
| 8 | 11 | BRAVE OF FRIENDS | 2.9% | 34.73 | 10 |
| 9 | 4 | EXCELLENT DADDY | 2.9% | 34.94 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | KA YING POWER | 2.8% | 35.17 | 5 |
| 11 | 14 | GANGNAM STAR | 2.7% | 36.59 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | COLONEL | 2.4% | 42.14 | 6 |
| 13 | 8 | DECRELOT | 2.1% | 46.85 | 1 |
| 14 | 12 | MACANESE MASTER | 1.5% | 68.08 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 375
PLACE
2 14.5
6 17.5
8 96
QUINELLA
2,8 582.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 35.5
2,8 189.5
6,8 269
FORECAST
8,2 1,674
TIERCE
8,2,6 9,756
TRIO
2,6,8 909
FIRST 4
1,2,6,8 759
QUARTET
8,2,6,1 41,118
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
3/2 42.5
3/8 2,980
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,7/2,6,8 27,236