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Sha Tin · 2025-10-04 · 05:31

Race 2

Class 5 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-04 was Class 5 over 1400m. DECRELOT, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D A Hayes, won, with CIRCUIT FIERY second and DRACO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite CIRCUIT FIERY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:22.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 DECRELOT Closed strongly 1:22.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D A Hayes 8 37.0
2 2 CIRCUIT FIERY Closed strongly Z Purton · W Y So 14 3.0 SH
3 6 DRACO Closed strongly H Bowman · P F Yiu 13 5.6 1/2
4 1 ONLY U Closed strongly K C Leung · B Crawford 2 3.3 1
5 9 KA YING POWER B Avdulla · J Size 4 20.0 2
6 5 COLONEL K De Melo · J Richards 1 50.0 3-1/4
7 14 GANGNAM STAR Closed strongly H Bentley · P C Ng 9 33.0 3-1/4
8 3 MY FLYING ANGEL Closed strongly A Badel · F C Lor 10 10.0 3-1/2
9 13 MR GOOD VIBES Closed strongly K Teetan · D J Hall 11 22.0 3-1/2
10 11 BRAVE OF FRIENDS R Kingscote · D J Whyte 3 21.0 4-3/4
11 4 EXCELLENT DADDY J Orman · C W Chang 6 121.0 5-1/4
12 7 ISLAND GOLDEN C Y Ho · K L Man 5 65.0 6-3/4
13 10 LUCKY GENERATIONS E C W Wong · C Fownes 7 15.0 9-1/4
14 12 MACANESE MASTER Led early M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 12 186.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DECRELOT2. CIRCUIT FIERY+0.1L3. DRACO+0.5L4. ONLY U+1L5. KA YING POWER+2L6. COLONEL+3.25L7. GANGNAM STAR+3.25L8. MY FLYING ANGEL+3.5L9. MR GOOD VIBES+3.5L10. BRAVE OF FRIENDS+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick CIRCUIT FIERY (27.0%) finished 2nd — the winner DECRELOT was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 CIRCUIT FIERY 27.0% 3.71 2
2 1 ONLY U 23.0% 4.35 4
3 6 DRACO 9.1% 11.02 3
4 10 LUCKY GENERATIONS 8.7% 11.53 13
5 3 MY FLYING ANGEL 7.8% 12.75 8
6 13 MR GOOD VIBES 3.6% 27.72 9
7 7 ISLAND GOLDEN 3.5% 28.25 12
8 11 BRAVE OF FRIENDS 2.9% 34.73 10
9 4 EXCELLENT DADDY 2.9% 34.94 11
10 9 KA YING POWER 2.8% 35.17 5
11 14 GANGNAM STAR 2.7% 36.59 7
12 5 COLONEL 2.4% 42.14 6
13 8 DECRELOT 2.1% 46.85 1
14 12 MACANESE MASTER 1.5% 68.08 14
CIRCUIT FIERYONLY UDRACOLUCKY GENERATIONSMY FLYING ANGELMR GOOD VIBESISLAND GOLDENBRAVE OF FRIENDSEXCELLENT DADDYKA YING POWERGANGNAM STARCOLONELDECRELOT — wonMACANESE MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 375

PLACE

2 14.5

6 17.5

8 96

QUINELLA

2,8 582.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 35.5

2,8 189.5

6,8 269

FORECAST

8,2 1,674

TIERCE

8,2,6 9,756

TRIO

2,6,8 909

FIRST 4

1,2,6,8 759

QUARTET

8,2,6,1 41,118

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/2 42.5

3/8 2,980

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,7/2,6,8 27,236