Happy Valley · 2025-10-08 · 11:36
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-08 was Class 4 over 1200m. LUNAR DASH, ridden by Z Purton and trained by M Newnham, won, with SILVER SPURS second and NEBRASKAN third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LUNAR DASH 1:09.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · M Newnham | Z Purton | M Newnham | 5 | 2.1 | — |
| 2 | 10 | SILVER SPURS E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 3 | 8.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | NEBRASKAN K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 2 | 9.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | DAN ATTACK A Atzeni · D J Whyte | A Atzeni | D J Whyte | 10 | 7.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | VULCANUS K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 11 | 33.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | BEAUTY THUNDER A Badel · W K Mo | A Badel | W K Mo | 4 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | KNOW AT HEART M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 8 | 18.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | NEW POWER J Orman · C W Chang | J Orman | C W Chang | 1 | 6.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 9 | 26.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 9 | SNOWTHORN D Probert · P F Yiu | D Probert | P F Yiu | 12 | 115.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | LOVING VIBES C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 24.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 3 | MOTOMAN C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 7 | 68.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LUNAR DASH | 27.2% | 3.67 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | NEW POWER | 17.7% | 5.65 | 8 |
| 3 | 10 | SILVER SPURS | 13.0% | 7.69 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | NEBRASKAN | 12.8% | 7.79 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | KNOW AT HEART | 5.0% | 20.13 | 7 |
| 6 | 8 | BEAUTY THUNDER | 4.5% | 22.06 | 6 |
| 7 | 12 | DAN ATTACK | 4.2% | 23.80 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | VULCANUS | 4.1% | 24.37 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | LOVING VIBES | 3.7% | 27.16 | 11 |
| 10 | 1 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 3.6% | 27.99 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | MOTOMAN | 2.2% | 45.86 | 12 |
| 12 | 9 | SNOWTHORN | 2.0% | 49.71 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 21.5
PLACE
5 14
10 26.5
11 27.5
QUINELLA
5,10 120.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,10 50.5
5,11 50.5
10,11 118
FORECAST
5,10 184
TIERCE
5,10,11 1,263
TRIO
5,10,11 395
FIRST 4
5,10,11,12 650
QUARTET
5,10,11,12 7,881
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,5/5,10,11 8,532
2ND DOUBLE
2/5 132.5
2/10 98