Happy Valley · 2025-10-08 · 14:20
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-08 was Class 3 over 1200m. REGAL GEM, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won, with NEVER TOO SOON second and BUNDLE OF CHARM third. The 3.3 favourite MONARCH COUNTY finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | REGAL GEM 1:09.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 3 | 3.7 | — |
| 2 | 10 | NEVER TOO SOON Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 11.0 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | BUNDLE OF CHARM B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 4 | 17.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | SOVEREIGN FUND K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 5 | 4.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | GRACIOUS EXPRESS J Orman · P F Yiu | J Orman | P F Yiu | 10 | 32.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | SPICY GOLD A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 8 | 31.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | MONARCH COUNTY L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 1 | 3.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | WINGS OF WAR K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 12 | 41.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | THRIVING BROTHERS M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 9 | 19.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 9 | ROMANTIC SON H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 11 | 75.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | YOUNG EMPEROR L Ferraris · D Eustace | L Ferraris | D Eustace | 7 | 27.0 | 4 |
| 12 | 8 | MASTER CHAMPION M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 6 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | REGAL GEM | 20.3% | 4.93 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | MONARCH COUNTY | 11.8% | 8.51 | 7 |
| 3 | 6 | BUNDLE OF CHARM | 11.4% | 8.77 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | SOVEREIGN FUND | 9.7% | 10.26 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | MASTER CHAMPION | 8.8% | 11.32 | 12 |
| 6 | 10 | NEVER TOO SOON | 8.8% | 11.33 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | YOUNG EMPEROR | 7.7% | 12.93 | 11 |
| 8 | 4 | GRACIOUS EXPRESS | 7.7% | 13.07 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | SPICY GOLD | 4.5% | 22.45 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | THRIVING BROTHERS | 4.0% | 25.24 | 9 |
| 11 | 1 | WINGS OF WAR | 3.2% | 30.82 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | ROMANTIC SON | 2.1% | 47.53 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 37.5
PLACE
6 33.5
7 15.5
10 30.5
QUINELLA
7,10 201
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 86.5
6,10 188.5
7,10 69
FORECAST
7,10 382
TIERCE
7,10,6 3,158
TRIO
6,7,10 751
FIRST 4
5,6,7,10 821
QUARTET
7,10,6,5 22,687
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
8/7 236.5
8/10 98.5