Happy Valley · 2025-10-08 · 13:50
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-08 was Class 4 over 1200m. FLYING WROTE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by A S Cruz, won, with EXCEED THE WISH second and CHARMING BABE third. Victory came as the 4.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FLYING WROTE 1:09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 11 | 4.4 | — |
| 2 | 11 | EXCEED THE WISH L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 10 | 16.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | CHARMING BABE J Orman · P F Yiu | J Orman | P F Yiu | 2 | 7.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | HAPPY PARK C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | GAMEPLAYER ELITE A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 3 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | DENFIELD B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 8 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | WORLD HERO A Badel · D A Hayes | A Badel | D A Hayes | 9 | 6.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | INNO CENTURY M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 1 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | GRAND NOVA H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 7 | 6.1 | 3 |
| 10 | 5 | ACE POWER L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 4 | 7.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | I P O BROS R Kingscote · Y S Tsui | R Kingscote | Y S Tsui | 6 | 28.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | WRITTEN CASA K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 12 | 39.0 | 4-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | GRAND NOVA | 16.0% | 6.25 | 9 |
| 2 | 5 | ACE POWER | 15.5% | 6.43 | 10 |
| 3 | 1 | CHARMING BABE | 10.8% | 9.27 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | FLYING WROTE | 10.6% | 9.47 | 1 |
| 5 | 6 | WORLD HERO | 8.6% | 11.59 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | GAMEPLAYER ELITE | 8.3% | 12.09 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | WRITTEN CASA | 6.0% | 16.61 | 12 |
| 8 | 9 | HAPPY PARK | 5.1% | 19.46 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | EXCEED THE WISH | 5.1% | 19.77 | 2 |
| 10 | 10 | I P O BROS | 5.0% | 19.83 | 11 |
| 11 | 12 | INNO CENTURY | 4.6% | 21.51 | 8 |
| 12 | 2 | DENFIELD | 4.3% | 23.27 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 44.5
PLACE
1 27
8 19.5
11 39.5
QUINELLA
8,11 290
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 56.5
1,11 167.5
8,11 107
FORECAST
8,11 495
TIERCE
8,11,1 2,765
TRIO
1,8,11 653
FIRST 4
1,8,9,11 2,614
QUARTET
8,11,1,9 37,933
All pools (3 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,8,10/1,8,11 127,471
6TH DOUBLE
10/8 578
10/11 340.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,4,10/6,8,10/Any Combination 26,919