Happy Valley · 2025-10-08 · 20:08
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MIGHTY STEED Closed strongly 1:38.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 11 | 4.1 | — |
| 2 | 8 | FORTUNE STAR Closed strongly L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 3 | 3.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | SUPER SICARIO Closed strongly K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 12 | 9.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | STERLING WONGCHOY M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 7 | 6.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | ABSOLUTE HONOUR B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 6 | 38.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | FORERUNNER Closed strongly C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 9 | 30.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 10 | CELESTIAL PATCH Closed strongly D Probert · D Eustace | D Probert | D Eustace | 5 | 7.8 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | THE AZURE Closed strongly H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 10 | 18.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | SIMPLE HEDGE A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 4 | 26.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | SOARING BRONCO H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 8 | 14.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | TO INFINITY A Badel · J Richards | A Badel | J Richards | 1 | 18.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 6 | VIGOR ELLEEGANT Led early Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 2 | 26.0 | 20-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-08 was Class 4 over 1650m. MIGHTY STEED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won, with FORTUNE STAR second and SUPER SICARIO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite FORTUNE STAR finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MIGHTY STEED | 22.5% | 4.44 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | FORTUNE STAR | 21.2% | 4.73 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | CELESTIAL PATCH | 13.4% | 7.44 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | SUPER SICARIO | 7.3% | 13.72 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | THE AZURE | 7.3% | 13.75 | 8 |
| 6 | 7 | SIMPLE HEDGE | 6.4% | 15.67 | 9 |
| 7 | 5 | TO INFINITY | 5.0% | 20.14 | 11 |
| 8 | 6 | VIGOR ELLEEGANT | 4.3% | 23.08 | 12 |
| 9 | 12 | STERLING WONGCHOY | 4.3% | 23.36 | 4 |
| 10 | 2 | FORERUNNER | 3.4% | 29.15 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | SOARING BRONCO | 2.9% | 34.23 | 10 |
| 12 | 3 | ABSOLUTE HONOUR | 2.0% | 50.01 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 41.5
PLACE
4 19.5
8 16.5
11 27.5
QUINELLA
4,8 108.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 39.5
4,11 67.5
8,11 55.5
FORECAST
4,8 182
TIERCE
4,8,11 1,171
TRIO
4,8,11 241
FIRST 4
4,8,11,12 296
QUARTET
4,8,11,12 4,686
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
5/4 71
5/8 12.5