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Sha Tin · 2025-10-12 · 00:56

Race 2

Class 4 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-12 was Class 4 over 1200m. JUBILANT WINNER, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by J Richards, won, with INCREDIBLE MOMENT second and ALL'S WELL third. Victory came as the 1.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1:08.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 JUBILANT WINNER 1:08.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · J Richards 2 1.2
2 6 INCREDIBLE MOMENT L Ferraris · M Newnham 11 7.0 N
3 2 ALL'S WELL M Chadwick · C H Yip 1 10.0 2
4 12 CIRCUIT VICTORY P N Wong · K L Man 5 16.0 4
5 1 CHEVAL VICTORIOUS K De Melo · D J Whyte 9 88.0 4
6 7 SPEEDY TRIDENT R Kingscote · Y S Tsui 12 181.0 6-3/4
7 10 SNOWTHORN D Probert · P F Yiu 6 49.0 7-3/4
8 8 BOWSER Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 16.0 8-3/4
9 5 CALL TO COMMAND J Orman · C W Chang 8 267.0 9-1/4
10 9 WIN METHOD H Bentley · C S Shum 3 95.0 10-1/4
11 4 HAPPY ALLIANCE C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 86.0 12-1/4
11 SAVVY TWINKLE M F Poon · F C Lor

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUBILANT WINNER2. INCREDIBLE MOMENT+0.05L3. ALL'S WELL+2L4. CIRCUIT VICTORY+4L5. CHEVAL VICTORIOUS+4L6. SPEEDY TRIDENT+6.75L7. SNOWTHORN+7.75L8. BOWSER+8.75L9. CALL TO COMMAND+9.25L10. WIN METHOD+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick JUBILANT WINNER (34.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 JUBILANT WINNER 34.7% 2.88 1
2 2 ALL'S WELL 31.5% 3.17 3
3 12 CIRCUIT VICTORY 10.3% 9.68 4
4 6 INCREDIBLE MOMENT 7.9% 12.59 2
5 8 BOWSER 4.4% 22.52 8
6 4 HAPPY ALLIANCE 3.1% 32.40 11
7 7 SPEEDY TRIDENT 2.4% 41.88 6
8 10 SNOWTHORN 1.8% 54.64 7
9 1 CHEVAL VICTORIOUS 1.4% 72.32 5
10 5 CALL TO COMMAND 1.2% 80.86 9
11 9 WIN METHOD 1.1% 90.87 10
JUBILANT WINNER — wonALL'S WELLCIRCUIT VICTORYINCREDIBLE MOMENTBOWSERHAPPY ALLIANCESPEEDY TRIDENTSNOWTHORNCHEVAL VICTORIOUSCALL TO COMMANDWIN METHOD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 12.5

PLACE

2 18.5

3 10.1

6 13

QUINELLA

3,6 30

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 20

2,6 52

3,6 14.5

FORECAST

3,6 48

TIERCE

3,6,2 157

TRIO

2,3,6 60

FIRST 4

2,3,6,12 85

QUARTET

3,6,2,12 752

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/3,11 92

3/6 104

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,7,12/2,3,6,11 478