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Sha Tin · 2025-10-12 · 07:05

Race 5

Class 4 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-12 was Class 4 over 1200m. OLDTOWN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won, with JUBILANT STAR second and BUNTA BABY third. The 2.7 favourite GOOD FORTUNE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1:09.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 OLDTOWN 1:09.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 4 3.4
2 4 JUBILANT STAR H Bowman · D J Hall 1 14.0 SH
3 8 BUNTA BABY P N Wong · K L Man 10 20.0 1/2
4 1 VOYAGE BOSS K C Leung · F C Lor 9 34.0 3/4
5 7 INVICTUS DRAGON C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 73.0 3/4
6 5 GOOD FORTUNE C L Chau · P C Ng 2 2.7 1-3/4
7 9 VON BAER E C W Wong · D A Hayes 12 12.0 2-1/4
8 3 GIDDY UP A Atzeni · J Richards 5 11.0 3
9 2 WAVE GARDEN L Ferraris · K H Ting 7 52.0 4-1/4
10 11 CLUB ACE D Probert · J Size 11 48.0 6
11 10 LUCKY MCQUEEN M Chadwick · W K Mo 6 28.0 6
12 12 ELEGANT LIFE A Badel · C Fownes 3 6.6 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. OLDTOWN2. JUBILANT STAR+0.1L3. BUNTA BABY+0.5L4. VOYAGE BOSS+0.75L5. INVICTUS DRAGON+0.75L6. GOOD FORTUNE+1.75L7. VON BAER+2.25L8. GIDDY UP+3L9. WAVE GARDEN+4.25L10. CLUB ACE+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick OLDTOWN (15.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 OLDTOWN 15.9% 6.30 1
2 12 ELEGANT LIFE 12.4% 8.03 12
3 4 JUBILANT STAR 12.2% 8.20 2
4 9 VON BAER 11.6% 8.60 7
5 3 GIDDY UP 10.8% 9.24 8
6 5 GOOD FORTUNE 9.4% 10.62 6
7 8 BUNTA BABY 7.0% 14.32 3
8 11 CLUB ACE 6.3% 15.98 10
9 1 VOYAGE BOSS 5.2% 19.40 4
10 10 LUCKY MCQUEEN 4.5% 22.02 11
11 7 INVICTUS DRAGON 2.7% 36.50 5
12 2 WAVE GARDEN 1.9% 51.74 9
OLDTOWN — wonELEGANT LIFEJUBILANT STARVON BAERGIDDY UPGOOD FORTUNEBUNTA BABYCLUB ACEVOYAGE BOSSLUCKY MCQUEENINVICTUS DRAGONWAVE GARDEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 34

PLACE

4 34

6 14.5

8 45.5

QUINELLA

4,6 249

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 81.5

4,8 287.5

6,8 96.5

FORECAST

6,4 383

TIERCE

6,4,8 4,314

TRIO

4,6,8 1,174

FIRST 4

1,4,6,8 4,557

QUARTET

6,4,8,1 59,141

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/2/4 420

3/2/6 1,177

4TH DOUBLE

2/4 63

2/6 171.5