Sha Tin · 2025-10-12 · 14:31
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GOOD LUCK BABE Closed strongly 1:21.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 3.1 | — |
| 2 | 10 | POSITIVE SMILE Closed strongly M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 13 | 12.0 | HD |
| 3 | 6 | EXCEL WONGCHOY Closed strongly R Kingscote · P C Ng | R Kingscote | P C Ng | 8 | 78.0 | N |
| 4 | 7 | INNO SUPER Closed strongly C L Chau · D Eustace | C L Chau | D Eustace | 1 | 7.5 | N |
| 5 | 4 | BLING BLING GENIUS Closed strongly A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 2 | 5.0 | 1/2 |
| 6 | 13 | DREAMING WINNER M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 5 | 30.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | GLORIASTAR Closed strongly L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 10 | 22.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | TIER FLY H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 6 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | SIGHT DREAMER M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 9 | 30.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | BIG STRIDE A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 14 | 196.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | THE HEIR Closed strongly E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 11 | 8.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | WINNING MACHINE Led early H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 7 | 7.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 13 | 8 | SUPERB GUY L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 4 | 40.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 14 | 14 | TOY SOLTERO D Probert · W Y So | D Probert | W Y So | 12 | 155.0 | 7-1/2 |
| — | 4 | WINNING DATA J Orman · P F Yiu | J Orman | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-12 was Class 4 over 1400m. GOOD LUCK BABE, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won, with POSITIVE SMILE second and EXCEL WONGCHOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GOOD LUCK BABE | 18.7% | 5.36 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | GLORIASTAR | 12.3% | 8.12 | 7 |
| 3 | 4 | BLING BLING GENIUS | 11.8% | 8.49 | 5 |
| 4 | 10 | POSITIVE SMILE | 9.3% | 10.77 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | WINNING MACHINE | 8.5% | 11.79 | 12 |
| 6 | 3 | THE HEIR | 8.1% | 12.32 | 11 |
| 7 | 1 | TIER FLY | 6.2% | 16.14 | 8 |
| 8 | 7 | INNO SUPER | 5.7% | 17.70 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | SIGHT DREAMER | 4.9% | 20.60 | 9 |
| 10 | 13 | DREAMING WINNER | 4.2% | 23.66 | 6 |
| 11 | 8 | SUPERB GUY | 4.0% | 25.20 | 13 |
| 12 | 6 | EXCEL WONGCHOY | 3.1% | 31.89 | 3 |
| 13 | 14 | TOY SOLTERO | 1.7% | 58.77 | 14 |
| 14 | 9 | BIG STRIDE | 1.6% | 61.18 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 31.5
PLACE
2 15
6 171
10 36
QUINELLA
2,10 210.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 454.5
2,10 80.5
6,10 1,068
FORECAST
2,10 296
TIERCE
2,10,6 12,424
TRIO
2,6,10 4,127
FIRST 4
2,6,7,10 6,868
QUARTET
2,10,6,7 110,550
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,8,11/2,6,10 948,996
3RD DOUBLE
3/2 367
3/10 148