Happy Valley · 2025-11-02 · 09:55
Race 10
Race 10 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-02 was Class 3 over 1650m. I CAN, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P C Ng, won, with KING LOTUS second and SPIRIT OF PEACE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite KEEN MOLLY finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | I CAN Closed strongly 1:40.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 8 | 51.0 | — |
| 2 | 6 | KING LOTUS Closed strongly L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 1 | 4.4 | SH |
| 3 | 8 | SPIRIT OF PEACE Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 6 | 9.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | STAR MAC Closed strongly R Kingscote · D A Hayes | R Kingscote | D A Hayes | 2 | 7.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | DRAGON AIR FORCE E C W Wong · P F Yiu | E C W Wong | P F Yiu | 5 | 46.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | KEEN MOLLY Z Purton · D Eustace | Z Purton | D Eustace | 9 | 2.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | MIGHTY STEED Y L Chung · K W Lui | Y L Chung | K W Lui | 11 | 6.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | ANOTHER ZONDA J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 4 | 23.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | NEZHA A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 3 | 33.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | NEARLY FINE Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 12 | 88.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | VIVA GRACIOUSNESS Led early M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 10 | 24.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | FAMILY KNIGHT D Probert · D J Whyte | D Probert | D J Whyte | 7 | 153.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | KEEN MOLLY | 32.3% | 3.10 | 6 |
| 2 | 6 | KING LOTUS | 18.7% | 5.35 | 2 |
| 3 | 12 | STAR MAC | 9.8% | 10.20 | 4 |
| 4 | 10 | MIGHTY STEED | 8.4% | 11.91 | 7 |
| 5 | 4 | ANOTHER ZONDA | 7.7% | 12.90 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | VIVA GRACIOUSNESS | 7.0% | 14.37 | 11 |
| 7 | 8 | SPIRIT OF PEACE | 5.6% | 17.77 | 3 |
| 8 | 1 | DRAGON AIR FORCE | 3.2% | 30.96 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | I CAN | 2.5% | 40.62 | 1 |
| 10 | 11 | NEZHA | 2.3% | 44.35 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | NEARLY FINE | 1.8% | 54.99 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | FAMILY KNIGHT | 0.7% | 134.77 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 514
PLACE
2 84.5
6 17
8 25.5
QUINELLA
2,6 896
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 263
2,8 491
6,8 65.5
FORECAST
2,6 2,955
TIERCE
2,6,8 19,634
TRIO
2,6,8 2,275
FIRST 4
2,6,8,12 2,368
QUARTET
2,6,8,12 104,745
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
1/11/2 13,819
1/11/6 179
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
3,8,11/2,6,8 26,191
9TH DOUBLE
11/2 1,206.5
11/6 35
SIX UP
4/10/1/1/11/2 1,460,780
4,10/9,10/1,2/1,11/3,11/2,6 2,859
1 [Z Purton] —
4 [D A Hayes], 8 [C S Shum] —