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Happy Valley · 2025-11-02 · 08:45

Race 8

Class 3 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-02 was Class 3 over 1200m. BRAVE STAR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won, with AURORA PATCH second and SPORTS LEGEND third. The 3.9 favourite AURORA PATCH finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:09.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BRAVE STAR 1:09.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 5.8
2 11 AURORA PATCH A Atzeni · K L Man 6 3.9 1/2
3 9 SPORTS LEGEND Y L Chung · D Eustace 10 5.3 1-1/2
4 2 SYMBOL OF STRENGTH C L Chau · F C Lor 2 74.0 1-3/4
5 7 ROMANTIC SON H Bentley · D A Hayes 7 11.0 1-3/4
6 5 REFUSETOBEENGLISH Z Purton · P C Ng 8 14.0 2-3/4
7 4 GOLDEN EMPIRE K De Melo · B Crawford 3 12.0 4
8 3 GUMMY GUMMY E C W Wong · C W Chang 11 14.0 5
9 6 HAYDAY K Teetan · P F Yiu 9 37.0 6-3/4
10 10 LUCKY PLANET P N Wong · W K Mo 4 7.1 7-3/4
11 12 THE ALL OUT A Badel · J Richards 12 44.0 7-3/4
12 8 DANCING CLASSICS D Probert · C Fownes 5 11.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BRAVE STAR2. AURORA PATCH+0.5L3. SPORTS LEGEND+1.5L4. SYMBOL OF STRENGTH+1.75L5. ROMANTIC SON+1.75L6. REFUSETOBEENGLISH+2.75L7. GOLDEN EMPIRE+4L8. GUMMY GUMMY+5L9. HAYDAY+6.75L10. LUCKY PLANET+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick AURORA PATCH (30.1%) finished 2nd — the winner BRAVE STAR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 AURORA PATCH 30.1% 3.32 2
2 9 SPORTS LEGEND 11.5% 8.67 3
3 10 LUCKY PLANET 11.5% 8.73 10
4 8 DANCING CLASSICS 10.4% 9.60 12
5 1 BRAVE STAR 9.3% 10.80 1
6 3 GUMMY GUMMY 6.3% 15.94 8
7 12 THE ALL OUT 4.8% 20.67 11
8 4 GOLDEN EMPIRE 4.1% 24.30 7
9 7 ROMANTIC SON 3.6% 27.88 5
10 6 HAYDAY 3.6% 28.09 9
11 5 REFUSETOBEENGLISH 3.3% 30.38 6
12 2 SYMBOL OF STRENGTH 1.6% 63.10 4
AURORA PATCHSPORTS LEGENDLUCKY PLANETDANCING CLASSICSBRAVE STAR — wonGUMMY GUMMYTHE ALL OUTGOLDEN EMPIREROMANTIC SONHAYDAYREFUSETOBEENGLISHSYMBOL OF STRENGTH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 58.5

PLACE

1 21

9 21.5

11 16

QUINELLA

1,11 127.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 70

1,11 51.5

9,11 53

FORECAST

1,11 276

TIERCE

1,11,9 1,940

TRIO

1,9,11 283

FIRST 4

1,2,9,11 2,742

QUARTET

1,11,9,2 38,511

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,5/1,9,11 73,257

7TH DOUBLE

1/1 313

1/11 61