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Happy Valley · 2025-11-02 · 07:15

Race 5

Class 4 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-02 was Class 4 over 1200m. ARGENTO OCEAN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Whyte, won, with LUCKY MCQUEEN second and BROWNNEEDSFURTHER third. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1:10.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 ARGENTO OCEAN 1:10.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Whyte 9 4.0
2 10 LUCKY MCQUEEN M Chadwick · W K Mo 2 14.0 1
3 5 BROWNNEEDSFURTHER J Orman · D J Hall 3 5.2 2
4 7 AUTUMN VIBES Z Purton · J Richards 11 4.5 2
5 8 EXCEED THE WISH L Hewitson · M Newnham 10 7.4 2
6 1 EVERSTAR K Teetan · Y S Tsui 6 11.0 2-3/4
7 12 WIN METHOD H Bentley · C S Shum 12 66.0 3
8 3 WINNING DATA R Kingscote · P F Yiu 5 9.2 3-1/4
9 9 SIGHT DREAMER A Atzeni · J Size 8 10.0 3-3/4
10 2 SUPER PACE A Badel · C Fownes 4 72.0 6
11 11 SMART ENGINEER D Probert · K W Lui 1 97.0 6-1/2
12 6 WINNING CIGAR K C Leung · D A Hayes 7 52.0 6-1/2
2 FLYING WROTE C L Chau · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ARGENTO OCEAN2. LUCKY MCQUEEN+1L3. BROWNNEEDSFURTHER+2L4. AUTUMN VIBES+2L5. EXCEED THE WISH+2L6. EVERSTAR+2.75L7. WIN METHOD+3L8. WINNING DATA+3.25L9. SIGHT DREAMER+3.75L10. SUPER PACE+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick AUTUMN VIBES (31.1%) finished 4th — the winner ARGENTO OCEAN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 AUTUMN VIBES 31.1% 3.22 4
2 8 EXCEED THE WISH 17.1% 5.86 5
3 4 ARGENTO OCEAN 15.3% 6.52 1
4 5 BROWNNEEDSFURTHER 9.4% 10.63 3
5 3 WINNING DATA 6.5% 15.32 8
6 1 EVERSTAR 4.9% 20.51 6
7 10 LUCKY MCQUEEN 4.3% 23.47 2
8 9 SIGHT DREAMER 4.1% 24.23 9
9 2 SUPER PACE 2.4% 40.94 10
10 6 WINNING CIGAR 2.0% 49.67 12
11 12 WIN METHOD 1.6% 62.90 7
12 11 SMART ENGINEER 1.3% 77.58 11
AUTUMN VIBESEXCEED THE WISHARGENTO OCEAN — wonBROWNNEEDSFURTHERWINNING DATAEVERSTARLUCKY MCQUEENSIGHT DREAMERSUPER PACEWINNING CIGARWIN METHODSMART ENGINEER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 40

PLACE

4 16.5

5 17.5

10 41

QUINELLA

4,10 263.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 46.5

4,10 80

5,10 141

FORECAST

4,10 555

TIERCE

4,10,5 3,656

TRIO

4,5,10 551

FIRST 4

4,5,7,10 490

QUARTET

4,10,5,7 13,654

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

4/11/4 1,619

4/11/10 2,715

4TH DOUBLE

11/4 168.5

11/10 121