Happy Valley · 2025-11-02 · 07:15
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-02 was Class 4 over 1200m. ARGENTO OCEAN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Whyte, won, with LUCKY MCQUEEN second and BROWNNEEDSFURTHER third. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ARGENTO OCEAN 1:10.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 9 | 4.0 | — |
| 2 | 10 | LUCKY MCQUEEN M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 2 | 14.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | BROWNNEEDSFURTHER J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 3 | 5.2 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | AUTUMN VIBES Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 11 | 4.5 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | EXCEED THE WISH L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 10 | 7.4 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | EVERSTAR K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 6 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | WIN METHOD H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 12 | 66.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 | WINNING DATA R Kingscote · P F Yiu | R Kingscote | P F Yiu | 5 | 9.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | SIGHT DREAMER A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 8 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | SUPER PACE A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 4 | 72.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 11 | SMART ENGINEER D Probert · K W Lui | D Probert | K W Lui | 1 | 97.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | WINNING CIGAR K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 7 | 52.0 | 6-1/2 |
| — | 2 | FLYING WROTE C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | AUTUMN VIBES | 31.1% | 3.22 | 4 |
| 2 | 8 | EXCEED THE WISH | 17.1% | 5.86 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | ARGENTO OCEAN | 15.3% | 6.52 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | BROWNNEEDSFURTHER | 9.4% | 10.63 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | WINNING DATA | 6.5% | 15.32 | 8 |
| 6 | 1 | EVERSTAR | 4.9% | 20.51 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | LUCKY MCQUEEN | 4.3% | 23.47 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | SIGHT DREAMER | 4.1% | 24.23 | 9 |
| 9 | 2 | SUPER PACE | 2.4% | 40.94 | 10 |
| 10 | 6 | WINNING CIGAR | 2.0% | 49.67 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | WIN METHOD | 1.6% | 62.90 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | SMART ENGINEER | 1.3% | 77.58 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 40
PLACE
4 16.5
5 17.5
10 41
QUINELLA
4,10 263.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 46.5
4,10 80
5,10 141
FORECAST
4,10 555
TIERCE
4,10,5 3,656
TRIO
4,5,10 551
FIRST 4
4,5,7,10 490
QUARTET
4,10,5,7 13,654
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
4/11/4 1,619
4/11/10 2,715
4TH DOUBLE
11/4 168.5
11/10 121