Happy Valley · 2025-11-05 · 11:15
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-05 was Class 5 over 1000m. SPEEDY SMARTIE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by B Crawford, won, with ORIENTAL SURPRISE second and HAPPY HORSE third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SPEEDY SMARTIE 0:57.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · B Crawford | C L Chau | B Crawford | 9 | 2.8 | — |
| 2 | 7 | ORIENTAL SURPRISE L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 6 | 5.9 | N |
| 3 | 4 | HAPPY HORSE P N Wong · K L Man | P N Wong | K L Man | 4 | 8.8 | N |
| 4 | 2 | ALWAYS MY FOLKS K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 1 | 5.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | GLORIOUS EXPERT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 12 | 14.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | MODEST GENTLEMAN M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 3 | 7.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | EVER SMART H Doyle · F C Lor | H Doyle | F C Lor | 7 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | SANTORINI M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 5 | 91.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | CAMP FIRE L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 11 | 55.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | DRAGON SUNRISE K De Melo · K W Lui | K De Melo | K W Lui | 2 | 39.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | HAPPY TANGO Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 10 | 47.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 3 | DIVINE MOONLIGHT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 8 | 46.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ALWAYS MY FOLKS | 19.6% | 5.10 | 4 |
| 2 | 9 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 14.2% | 7.04 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | SPEEDY SMARTIE | 13.8% | 7.26 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | HAPPY HORSE | 12.6% | 7.94 | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | EVER SMART | 10.0% | 10.03 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | ORIENTAL SURPRISE | 8.9% | 11.26 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | DRAGON SUNRISE | 4.6% | 21.87 | 10 |
| 8 | 10 | HAPPY TANGO | 3.8% | 26.48 | 11 |
| 9 | 8 | CAMP FIRE | 3.3% | 29.88 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | GLORIOUS EXPERT | 3.3% | 30.15 | 5 |
| 11 | 5 | SANTORINI | 3.3% | 30.57 | 8 |
| 12 | 3 | DIVINE MOONLIGHT | 2.7% | 37.15 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 28.5
PLACE
1 12.5
4 29.5
7 22.5
QUINELLA
1,7 88
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 59.5
1,7 36.5
4,7 122
FORECAST
1,7 179
TIERCE
1,7,4 1,502
TRIO
1,4,7 363
FIRST 4
1,2,4,7 294
QUARTET
1,7,4,2 8,610
All pools (1 more)
1ST DOUBLE
7/1 348
7/7 152.5