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Happy Valley · 2025-11-05 · 11:15

Race 2

Class 5 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-05 was Class 5 over 1000m. SPEEDY SMARTIE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by B Crawford, won, with ORIENTAL SURPRISE second and HAPPY HORSE third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 0:57.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SPEEDY SMARTIE 0:57.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · B Crawford 9 2.8
2 7 ORIENTAL SURPRISE L Hewitson · D A Hayes 6 5.9 N
3 4 HAPPY HORSE P N Wong · K L Man 4 8.8 N
4 2 ALWAYS MY FOLKS K Teetan · C W Chang 1 5.0 1/2
5 11 GLORIOUS EXPERT H Bentley · K H Ting 12 14.0 1-1/2
6 9 MODEST GENTLEMAN M Chadwick · C H Yip 3 7.6 2-1/4
7 12 EVER SMART H Doyle · F C Lor 7 11.0 2-3/4
8 5 SANTORINI M L Yeung · W Y So 5 91.0 4-1/4
9 8 CAMP FIRE L Ferraris · D J Whyte 11 55.0 5
10 6 DRAGON SUNRISE K De Melo · K W Lui 2 39.0 5-1/2
11 10 HAPPY TANGO Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 10 47.0 6
12 3 DIVINE MOONLIGHT E C W Wong · C Fownes 8 46.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPEEDY SMARTIE2. ORIENTAL SURPRISE+0.05L3. HAPPY HORSE+0.05L4. ALWAYS MY FOLKS+0.5L5. GLORIOUS EXPERT+1.5L6. MODEST GENTLEMAN+2.25L7. EVER SMART+2.75L8. SANTORINI+4.25L9. CAMP FIRE+5L10. DRAGON SUNRISE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ALWAYS MY FOLKS (19.6%) finished 4th — the winner SPEEDY SMARTIE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ALWAYS MY FOLKS 19.6% 5.10 4
2 9 MODEST GENTLEMAN 14.2% 7.04 6
3 1 SPEEDY SMARTIE 13.8% 7.26 1
4 4 HAPPY HORSE 12.6% 7.94 3
5 12 EVER SMART 10.0% 10.03 7
6 7 ORIENTAL SURPRISE 8.9% 11.26 2
7 6 DRAGON SUNRISE 4.6% 21.87 10
8 10 HAPPY TANGO 3.8% 26.48 11
9 8 CAMP FIRE 3.3% 29.88 9
10 11 GLORIOUS EXPERT 3.3% 30.15 5
11 5 SANTORINI 3.3% 30.57 8
12 3 DIVINE MOONLIGHT 2.7% 37.15 12
ALWAYS MY FOLKSMODEST GENTLEMANSPEEDY SMARTIE — wonHAPPY HORSEEVER SMARTORIENTAL SURPRISEDRAGON SUNRISEHAPPY TANGOCAMP FIREGLORIOUS EXPERTSANTORINIDIVINE MOONLIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 28.5

PLACE

1 12.5

4 29.5

7 22.5

QUINELLA

1,7 88

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 59.5

1,7 36.5

4,7 122

FORECAST

1,7 179

TIERCE

1,7,4 1,502

TRIO

1,4,7 363

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 294

QUARTET

1,7,4,2 8,610

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/1 348

7/7 152.5