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Happy Valley · 2025-11-05 · 14:55

Race 9

Class 3 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-05 was Class 3 over 1650m. URANUS STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won, with SILVERY BREEZE second and A AMERIC TE SPECSO third. The winner led throughout. The 3.7 favourite SILVERY BREEZE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:39.04
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 URANUS STAR Wire to wire 1:39.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 2 7.4
2 5 SILVERY BREEZE Closed strongly B Avdulla · D Eustace 5 3.7 N
3 4 A AMERIC TE SPECSO Closed strongly A Atzeni · J Size 12 16.0 3/4
4 6 STURDY RUBY Closed strongly C Y Ho · K L Man 10 21.0 1
5 8 IVY LEAGUE R Kingscote · D J Whyte 4 9.9 1-1/2
6 12 VICTORY SKY H Doyle · P F Yiu 3 3.7 1-1/2
7 3 STORMING DRAGON Closed strongly L Hewitson · J Richards 9 39.0 2-3/4
8 1 CAMBRIDGE L Ferraris · P C Ng 11 27.0 2-3/4
9 2 EMBRACES C L Chau · W K Mo 1 8.1 3
10 11 NOBLE PURSUIT A Badel · C Fownes 8 42.0 3-3/4
11 7 LOVERO Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 28.0 4
12 9 TOP GUN K Teetan · F C Lor 7 11.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. URANUS STAR2. SILVERY BREEZE+0.05L3. A AMERIC TE SPECSO+0.75L4. STURDY RUBY+1L5. IVY LEAGUE+1.5L6. VICTORY SKY+1.5L7. STORMING DRAGON+2.75L8. CAMBRIDGE+2.75L9. EMBRACES+3L10. NOBLE PURSUIT+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick VICTORY SKY (22.4%) finished 6th — the winner URANUS STAR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 VICTORY SKY 22.4% 4.47 6
2 10 URANUS STAR 20.1% 4.97 1
3 2 EMBRACES 9.3% 10.71 9
4 6 STURDY RUBY 9.3% 10.78 4
5 5 SILVERY BREEZE 8.7% 11.47 2
6 4 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 5.5% 18.07 3
7 3 STORMING DRAGON 4.9% 20.57 7
8 1 CAMBRIDGE 4.7% 21.24 8
9 8 IVY LEAGUE 4.7% 21.44 5
10 9 TOP GUN 4.0% 24.96 12
11 7 LOVERO 3.2% 30.90 11
12 11 NOBLE PURSUIT 3.2% 31.48 10
VICTORY SKYURANUS STAR — wonEMBRACESSTURDY RUBYSILVERY BREEZEA AMERIC TE SPECSOSTORMING DRAGONCAMBRIDGEIVY LEAGUETOP GUNLOVERONOBLE PURSUIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 74

PLACE

4 41.5

5 14

10 27.5

QUINELLA

5,10 223.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 120.5

4,10 220.5

5,10 85

FORECAST

10,5 406

TIERCE

10,5,4 5,581

TRIO

4,5,10 1,067

FIRST 4

4,5,6,10 2,143

QUARTET

10,5,4,6 47,879

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

1/1/5 119

1/1/10 1,223

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,6/4,5,10 148,435

8TH DOUBLE

1/5 39.5

1/10 504

SIX UP

4/10/3/1/1/10 1,135,579

4,11/2,10/2,3/1,6/1,3/5,10 8,637

4 [F C Lor]

1 [Z Purton]