Happy Valley · 2025-11-05 · 12:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-05 was Class 4 over 1650m. CORLEONE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won, with STORMI second and ABSOLUTE AWAKENED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CORLEONE Closed strongly 1:38.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 6 | 3.3 | — |
| 2 | 11 | STORMI C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 12 | 8.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | ABSOLUTE AWAKENED Closed strongly A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 1 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | VIVACIOUS WIN Closed strongly B Avdulla · D Eustace | B Avdulla | D Eustace | 7 | 45.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | CONSPIRACY WITNESS Closed strongly L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 3 | 3.7 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | CHAIN OF GOLD Closed strongly K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 4 | 5.7 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | SMART CITY Closed strongly Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 10 | 12.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | ABSOLUTE HONOUR Led early A Atzeni · A S Cruz | A Atzeni | A S Cruz | 2 | 14.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | LIGHTNING ARROW Closed strongly H Doyle · P C Ng | H Doyle | P C Ng | 11 | 51.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | WISEMAN H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 9 | 34.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | KOLACHI J Orman · D J Whyte | J Orman | D J Whyte | 5 | 60.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | GASTRONOMIQUE K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 8 | 29.0 | 21 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CHAIN OF GOLD | 27.2% | 3.68 | 6 |
| 2 | 4 | CORLEONE | 17.1% | 5.84 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | CONSPIRACY WITNESS | 14.2% | 7.05 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | SMART CITY | 8.5% | 11.79 | 7 |
| 5 | 6 | ABSOLUTE AWAKENED | 7.9% | 12.70 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | STORMI | 7.1% | 14.07 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | ABSOLUTE HONOUR | 6.8% | 14.78 | 8 |
| 8 | 7 | GASTRONOMIQUE | 3.9% | 25.51 | 12 |
| 9 | 12 | WISEMAN | 2.7% | 37.20 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | VIVACIOUS WIN | 1.8% | 54.59 | 4 |
| 11 | 1 | KOLACHI | 1.6% | 63.32 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | LIGHTNING ARROW | 1.3% | 78.70 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 33
PLACE
4 13
6 37
11 29.5
QUINELLA
4,11 154.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 65.5
4,11 52
6,11 146
FORECAST
4,11 288
TIERCE
4,11,6 2,755
TRIO
4,6,11 728
FIRST 4
4,6,10,11 6,903
QUARTET
4,11,6,10 78,045
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
2/4 170
2/11 100