Happy Valley · 2025-11-05 · 21:11
Race 6
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FORTUNATE SON Closed strongly 1:39.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 7 | 11.0 | — |
| 2 | 2 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly P N Wong · J Richards | P N Wong | J Richards | 5 | 25.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | ACE WAR Closed strongly D Probert · D J Whyte | D Probert | D J Whyte | 4 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | FORTUNE STAR Closed strongly L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 10 | 2.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | THUNDER BLINK M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 6 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | STAR BROSE Closed strongly L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | CELTIC TIMES K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 3 | 8.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | YOUNG FIGHTER R Kingscote · C Fownes | R Kingscote | C Fownes | 11 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | CARRYON SMILING Closed strongly A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 8 | 72.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | BRIGHT MORTAR H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 1 | 20.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 12 | 11.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | KINGDOM OF RICHES Led early E C W Wong · C S Shum | E C W Wong | C S Shum | 9 | 44.0 | 24-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-05 was Class 4 over 1650m. FORTUNATE SON, ridden by K C Leung and trained by W K Mo, won, with SUNDAY'S SERENADE second and ACE WAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite FORTUNE STAR finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | FORTUNE STAR | 34.8% | 2.87 | 4 |
| 2 | 11 | STAR BROSE | 16.6% | 6.03 | 6 |
| 3 | 6 | CELTIC TIMES | 13.8% | 7.27 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE | 6.9% | 14.58 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | ACE WAR | 5.9% | 16.90 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE | 5.1% | 19.46 | 11 |
| 7 | 3 | FORTUNATE SON | 4.1% | 24.38 | 1 |
| 8 | 12 | THUNDER BLINK | 4.1% | 24.65 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | YOUNG FIGHTER | 3.7% | 26.76 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | CARRYON SMILING | 2.6% | 39.12 | 9 |
| 11 | 1 | KINGDOM OF RICHES | 1.3% | 78.13 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | BRIGHT MORTAR | 1.2% | 81.72 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 115.5
PLACE
2 61.5
3 31.5
10 31
QUINELLA
2,3 1,465.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 369
2,10 336.5
3,10 224
FORECAST
3,2 2,312
TIERCE
3,2,10 26,812
TRIO
2,3,10 4,149
FIRST 4
2,3,7,10 1,870
QUARTET
3,2,10,7 67,793
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
10/2 709.5
10/3 3,138.5