Happy Valley · 2025-11-05 · 11:45
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-05 was Class 4 over 1200m. TOURBILLON GOLFER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won, with ROMAN CROWN second and NEVER SETTLE third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | TOURBILLON GOLFER 1:09.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 11 | 2.5 | — |
| 2 | 9 | ROMAN CROWN H Doyle · P C Ng | H Doyle | P C Ng | 2 | 5.8 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | NEVER SETTLE C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 39.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | GRAND NOVA B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 7 | 9.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | VON BAER E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 1 | 3.2 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | BIG RETURN A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 9 | 93.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 8 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | GOLDEN BRILLIANT D Probert · C Fownes | D Probert | C Fownes | 3 | 129.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | SHOTGUN K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 4 | 20.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 10 | BASIC INSTINCT A Atzeni · Y S Tsui | A Atzeni | Y S Tsui | 6 | 45.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | GLORY B L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 27.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 6 | MASTER RESOLUTE R Kingscote · C S Shum | R Kingscote | C S Shum | 10 | 133.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | TOURBILLON GOLFER | 28.3% | 3.53 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | ROMAN CROWN | 20.4% | 4.90 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | VON BAER | 19.4% | 5.15 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 8.4% | 11.84 | 7 |
| 5 | 5 | GRAND NOVA | 5.1% | 19.50 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | SHOTGUN | 5.0% | 19.98 | 9 |
| 7 | 1 | GLORY B | 4.0% | 25.19 | 11 |
| 8 | 7 | NEVER SETTLE | 3.6% | 27.69 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | BASIC INSTINCT | 2.1% | 47.17 | 10 |
| 10 | 6 | MASTER RESOLUTE | 1.5% | 67.01 | 12 |
| 11 | 3 | BIG RETURN | 1.2% | 84.68 | 6 |
| 12 | 8 | GOLDEN BRILLIANT | 0.9% | 110.33 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 25.5
PLACE
2 13
7 81.5
9 18.5
QUINELLA
2,9 68.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 154.5
2,9 31
7,9 225
FORECAST
2,9 133
TIERCE
2,9,7 2,787
TRIO
2,7,9 854
FIRST 4
2,5,7,9 1,224
QUARTET
2,9,7,5 17,886
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,7/2,7,9 29,227
2ND DOUBLE
1/2 110.5
1/9 28