Happy Valley · 2025-11-19 · 10:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-19 was Class 4 over 1200m. WIN METHOD, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C S Shum, won, with SNOWTHORN second and FREE PONY third. The 3.8 favourite GENIUS BABY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | WIN METHOD 1:09.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 8 | 8.1 | — |
| 2 | 11 | SNOWTHORN R Kingscote · P F Yiu | R Kingscote | P F Yiu | 7 | 13.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | FREE PONY A Badel · C W Chang | A Badel | C W Chang | 10 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | WINNING NOW C L Chau · F C Lor | C L Chau | F C Lor | 3 | 4.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | GENIUS BABY K Teetan · B Crawford | K Teetan | B Crawford | 2 | 3.8 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | UP WITH CHARM C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 4 | 33.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | ABSOLUTE LUCKY A Atzeni · M Newnham | A Atzeni | M Newnham | 12 | 97.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 11 | 14.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | BASIC INSTINCT M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 1 | 9.7 | 6 |
| 10 | 9 | DASH D Probert · D J Whyte | D Probert | D J Whyte | 6 | 22.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | WAVE GARDEN K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 9 | 21.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | SIR CHARGE H Bowman · D Eustace | H Bowman | D Eustace | 5 | 7.8 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | GENIUS BABY | 25.4% | 3.94 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | SIR CHARGE | 11.8% | 8.47 | 12 |
| 3 | 3 | FREE PONY | 10.2% | 9.82 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | BASIC INSTINCT | 8.2% | 12.25 | 9 |
| 5 | 4 | WINNING NOW | 7.4% | 13.57 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | WAVE GARDEN | 6.4% | 15.70 | 11 |
| 7 | 8 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL | 6.2% | 16.03 | 8 |
| 8 | 12 | WIN METHOD | 5.6% | 17.70 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | DASH | 5.3% | 19.05 | 10 |
| 10 | 6 | ABSOLUTE LUCKY | 4.8% | 20.82 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | SNOWTHORN | 4.6% | 21.57 | 2 |
| 12 | 5 | UP WITH CHARM | 4.2% | 23.91 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 81.5
PLACE
3 35.5
11 34
12 23
QUINELLA
11,12 471.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,11 275.5
3,12 163
11,12 146
FORECAST
12,11 959
TIERCE
12,11,3 11,816
TRIO
3,11,12 2,196
FIRST 4
3,4,11,12 2,803
QUARTET
12,11,3,4 70,837