Happy Valley · 2025-11-19 · 12:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-19 was Class 4 over 1650m. SAMARKAND, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D A Hayes, won, with RAGGA BOMB second and KOLACHI third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SAMARKAND Wire to wire 1:40.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 1 | 2.4 | — |
| 2 | 6 | RAGGA BOMB Closed strongly E C W Wong · D Eustace | E C W Wong | D Eustace | 10 | 7.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | KOLACHI Closed strongly D Probert · D J Whyte | D Probert | D J Whyte | 2 | 47.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | METAL KING Closed strongly M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 12 | 39.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | PERFECT PAIRING Closed strongly K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 5 | 45.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE Closed strongly H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 6 | 5.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | ABSOLUTE AWAKENED Closed strongly A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 11 | 6.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | MATSU VICTOR C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 8.6 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | HAPPY BUDDIES K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 4 | 28.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 11 | CARRYON SMILING Closed strongly A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 8 | 40.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | COLOURFUL KNIGHT P N Wong · C S Shum | P N Wong | C S Shum | 7 | 73.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | EXCEL WONGCHOY L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 3 | 13.0 | 10-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SAMARKAND | 33.0% | 3.03 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | ABSOLUTE AWAKENED | 12.9% | 7.73 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | MATSU VICTOR | 12.5% | 7.99 | 8 |
| 4 | 4 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE | 10.8% | 9.26 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | EXCEL WONGCHOY | 6.2% | 16.12 | 12 |
| 6 | 6 | RAGGA BOMB | 5.9% | 16.83 | 2 |
| 7 | 12 | METAL KING | 5.4% | 18.64 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | HAPPY BUDDIES | 3.9% | 25.35 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | PERFECT PAIRING | 3.7% | 27.34 | 5 |
| 10 | 11 | CARRYON SMILING | 2.8% | 35.86 | 10 |
| 11 | 3 | KOLACHI | 1.6% | 62.01 | 3 |
| 12 | 2 | COLOURFUL KNIGHT | 1.2% | 84.93 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 24
PLACE
1 13.5
3 93.5
6 22.5
QUINELLA
1,6 82
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 185.5
1,6 38
3,6 485
FORECAST
1,6 160
TIERCE
1,6,3 3,681
TRIO
1,3,6 1,239
FIRST 4
1,3,6,12 6,745
QUARTET
1,6,3,12 55,982
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
8/1 273
8/6 200.5