Happy Valley · 2025-11-19 · 13:15
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-19 was Class 4 over 1200m. LAKESHORE HERO, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by D J Hall, won, with WINNING MONEY second and SAVVY TWINKLE third. The 3.8 favourite NEBRASKAN finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | LAKESHORE HERO 1:10.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| 2 | 5 | WINNING MONEY K De Melo · K W Lui | K De Melo | K W Lui | 12 | 7.4 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | SAVVY TWINKLE A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 7 | 16.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | HEALTHY HEALTHY H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 11 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | VON BAER K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 6 | 7.9 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | WINNING CHAMPION J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 10 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | NEBRASKAN R Kingscote · J Size | R Kingscote | J Size | 5 | 3.8 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | EXCEED THE WISH L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 8 | 7.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | KING VICTOR C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 1 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | GOLDEN BRILLIANT D Probert · C Fownes | D Probert | C Fownes | 3 | 45.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | FORTUNE WARRIOR C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 4 | 30.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | YOUNG STRIKER H T Mo · W Y So | H T Mo | W Y So | 9 | 81.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | NEBRASKAN | 16.4% | 6.11 | 7 |
| 2 | 9 | VON BAER | 14.2% | 7.04 | 5 |
| 3 | 7 | EXCEED THE WISH | 11.1% | 8.98 | 8 |
| 4 | 6 | KING VICTOR | 10.5% | 9.49 | 9 |
| 5 | 8 | LAKESHORE HERO | 10.0% | 10.03 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | WINNING CHAMPION | 8.1% | 12.40 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | HEALTHY HEALTHY | 8.0% | 12.55 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | WINNING MONEY | 7.6% | 13.22 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | SAVVY TWINKLE | 7.2% | 13.93 | 3 |
| 10 | 4 | FORTUNE WARRIOR | 4.0% | 24.96 | 11 |
| 11 | 3 | GOLDEN BRILLIANT | 1.6% | 63.86 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | YOUNG STRIKER | 1.4% | 69.45 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 50
PLACE
5 27.5
8 19.5
11 48
QUINELLA
5,8 240
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 91.5
5,11 241.5
8,11 188.5
FORECAST
8,5 547
TIERCE
8,5,11 6,743
TRIO
5,8,11 1,679
FIRST 4
1,5,8,11 4,107
QUARTET
8,5,11,1 67,159
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
2/5 54
2/8 362.5