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Happy Valley · 2025-11-19 · 12:45

Race 5

Class 4 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-19 was Class 4 over 1000m. MR DESIRA, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won, with BUNTA BABY second and LOVING VIBES third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 0:57.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 MR DESIRA 0:57.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 2.8
2 8 BUNTA BABY P N Wong · K L Man 3 5.8 2-1/2
3 6 LOVING VIBES C L Chau · K W Lui 1 11.0 2-1/2
4 3 HARMONY FIRE H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 10.0 2-3/4
5 9 CALL TO COMMAND L Hewitson · C W Chang 5 101.0 3
6 5 STAR PERFORMER L Ferraris · M Newnham 2 9.9 3-3/4
7 4 ONE LOVE H Bowman · J Size 11 62.0 4-1/2
8 1 QUICK MONEY J McDonald · C H Yip 4 10.0 5
9 12 WINNING MACHINE M F Poon · C S Shum 8 6.9 5
10 10 SERGEANT PEPPER R Kingscote · Y S Tsui 9 33.0 5
11 7 HEROIC MASTER B Avdulla · F C Lor 10 10.0 5-1/4
12 11 THOUSAND CUPS Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 65.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MR DESIRA2. BUNTA BABY+2.5L3. LOVING VIBES+2.5L4. HARMONY FIRE+2.75L5. CALL TO COMMAND+3L6. STAR PERFORMER+3.75L7. ONE LOVE+4.5L8. QUICK MONEY+5L9. WINNING MACHINE+5L10. SERGEANT PEPPER+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MR DESIRA (35.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 MR DESIRA 35.1% 2.85 1
2 8 BUNTA BABY 21.6% 4.63 2
3 5 STAR PERFORMER 8.9% 11.25 6
4 12 WINNING MACHINE 6.0% 16.62 9
5 1 QUICK MONEY 5.6% 17.82 8
6 7 HEROIC MASTER 5.0% 20.17 11
7 3 HARMONY FIRE 4.7% 21.19 4
8 6 LOVING VIBES 4.5% 22.04 3
9 11 THOUSAND CUPS 3.0% 33.55 12
10 10 SERGEANT PEPPER 2.8% 35.62 10
11 9 CALL TO COMMAND 1.5% 67.11 5
12 4 ONE LOVE 1.3% 79.18 7
MR DESIRA — wonBUNTA BABYSTAR PERFORMERWINNING MACHINEQUICK MONEYHEROIC MASTERHARMONY FIRELOVING VIBESTHOUSAND CUPSSERGEANT PEPPERCALL TO COMMANDONE LOVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 28

PLACE

2 14

6 36.5

8 21.5

QUINELLA

2,8 84

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 60

2,8 38

6,8 102.5

FORECAST

2,8 148

TIERCE

2,8,6 940

TRIO

2,6,8 267

FIRST 4

2,3,6,8 450

QUARTET

2,8,6,3 6,001

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

8/1/2 789

8/1/8 288

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,6/2,6,8 29,819

4TH DOUBLE

1/2 62.5

1/8 25