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Sha Tin · 2025-11-23 · 05:20

Race 2

Class 4 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-23 was Class 4 over 1400m. FIT FOR BEAUTY, ridden by J McDonald and trained by J Size, won, with LUCKY MAN second and THOUSAND SPIRIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1:21.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 FIT FOR BEAUTY Closed strongly 1:21.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · J Size 3 3.5
2 11 LUCKY MAN Closed strongly B Avdulla · D A Hayes 1 4.6 1
3 1 THOUSAND SPIRIT Led early L Hewitson · M Newnham 6 17.0 1-1/2
4 14 SUPER SICARIO Closed strongly D Probert · C Fownes 9 29.0 2-1/4
5 9 SUNNY Q Closed strongly A Atzeni · W Y So 4 3.9 3
6 6 HAPPY BOSS Closed strongly C L Chau · D Eustace 12 45.0 3-1/4
7 10 RAINBOW SEVEN Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 13 17.0 5-1/2
8 3 CHEVAL VICTORIOUS Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Whyte 2 14.0 6
9 2 BRIGHT DAY J Orman · K L Man 14 17.0 6-3/4
10 4 FRANTANCK A Badel · P C Ng 7 19.0 7-1/2
11 5 GLORIOUS ST PAUL'S M F Poon · F C Lor 10 25.0 9-1/4
12 12 FLASH STAR R Kingscote · C S Shum 5 104.0 10
13 7 ABSOLUTE HONOUR H Doyle · A S Cruz 11 43.0 14-3/4
14 13 SPARKLE AND GOLD Y L Chung · C H Yip 8 29.0 15

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIT FOR BEAUTY2. LUCKY MAN+1L3. THOUSAND SPIRIT+1.5L4. SUPER SICARIO+2.25L5. SUNNY Q+3L6. HAPPY BOSS+3.25L7. RAINBOW SEVEN+5.5L8. CHEVAL VICTORIOUS+6L9. BRIGHT DAY+6.75L10. FRANTANCK+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick SUNNY Q (28.4%) finished 5th — the winner FIT FOR BEAUTY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 SUNNY Q 28.4% 3.52 5
2 2 BRIGHT DAY 17.2% 5.81 9
3 3 CHEVAL VICTORIOUS 9.1% 10.96 8
4 8 FIT FOR BEAUTY 7.5% 13.27 1
5 10 RAINBOW SEVEN 7.0% 14.26 7
6 11 LUCKY MAN 6.0% 16.77 2
7 7 ABSOLUTE HONOUR 4.7% 21.49 13
8 14 SUPER SICARIO 3.7% 26.92 4
9 1 THOUSAND SPIRIT 3.4% 29.84 3
10 5 GLORIOUS ST PAUL'S 3.3% 30.11 11
11 13 SPARKLE AND GOLD 3.0% 33.02 14
12 6 HAPPY BOSS 2.8% 35.11 6
13 4 FRANTANCK 2.2% 45.64 10
14 12 FLASH STAR 1.7% 59.71 12
SUNNY QBRIGHT DAYCHEVAL VICTORIOUSFIT FOR BEAUTY — wonRAINBOW SEVENLUCKY MANABSOLUTE HONOURSUPER SICARIOTHOUSAND SPIRITGLORIOUS ST PAUL'SSPARKLE AND GOLDHAPPY BOSSFRANTANCKFLASH STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 35

PLACE

1 39

8 15.5

11 17

QUINELLA

8,11 77.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 96.5

1,11 115.5

8,11 34

FORECAST

8,11 170

TIERCE

8,11,1 1,606

TRIO

1,8,11 487

FIRST 4

1,8,11,14 1,766

QUARTET

8,11,1,14 24,968

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

10/8 1,350

10/11 309.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,10/1,8,11 230,036