Happy Valley · 2025-11-26 · 10:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-26 was Class 5 over 1200m. LEGEND STAR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won, with GLORY CLOUD second and SONIC BOOM third. The 3.4 favourite GLORIOUS EXPERT finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LEGEND STAR 1:10.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 9 | 21.0 | — |
| 2 | 4 | GLORY CLOUD A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 7 | 11.0 | SH |
| 3 | 10 | SONIC BOOM H Bentley · W K Mo | H Bentley | W K Mo | 12 | 7.9 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | GLORIOUS EXPERT R Kingscote · K H Ting | R Kingscote | K H Ting | 5 | 3.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | DOUBLE BINGO M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 10 | 9.6 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | INNO CENTURY M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 8 | 37.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | EVER SMART H Doyle · F C Lor | H Doyle | F C Lor | 4 | 6.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | JOYFUL TREASURE K De Melo · K W Lui | K De Melo | K W Lui | 2 | 8.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | BRILLIANT FIRE D Probert · D J Whyte | D Probert | D J Whyte | 6 | 46.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | ALWAYS MY FOLKS K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 3 | 5.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 8 | SUPER CHARIZZARD L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 11 | 35.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | BEAUTY FORMULA Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 85.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ALWAYS MY FOLKS | 27.8% | 3.60 | 10 |
| 2 | 9 | DOUBLE BINGO | 11.8% | 8.48 | 5 |
| 3 | 10 | SONIC BOOM | 9.7% | 10.32 | 3 |
| 4 | 12 | EVER SMART | 9.7% | 10.36 | 7 |
| 5 | 5 | LEGEND STAR | 8.4% | 11.85 | 1 |
| 6 | 4 | GLORY CLOUD | 7.2% | 13.94 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | JOYFUL TREASURE | 6.0% | 16.56 | 8 |
| 8 | 11 | GLORIOUS EXPERT | 5.5% | 18.03 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | INNO CENTURY | 5.0% | 19.82 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | SUPER CHARIZZARD | 4.5% | 22.46 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | BRILLIANT FIRE | 2.7% | 36.98 | 9 |
| 12 | 6 | BEAUTY FORMULA | 1.7% | 59.62 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 214
PLACE
4 30.5
5 50.5
10 25.5
QUINELLA
4,5 937.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 258
4,10 121
5,10 206
FORECAST
5,4 1,865
TIERCE
5,4,10 16,512
TRIO
4,5,10 2,138
FIRST 4
4,5,10,11 2,367
QUARTET
5,4,10,11 81,136