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Happy Valley · 2025-11-26 · 10:45

Race 1

Class 5 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-26 was Class 5 over 1200m. LEGEND STAR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won, with GLORY CLOUD second and SONIC BOOM third. The 3.4 favourite GLORIOUS EXPERT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1:10.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 LEGEND STAR 1:10.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum 9 21.0
2 4 GLORY CLOUD A Badel · C Fownes 7 11.0 SH
3 10 SONIC BOOM H Bentley · W K Mo 12 7.9 3/4
4 11 GLORIOUS EXPERT R Kingscote · K H Ting 5 3.4 1-3/4
5 9 DOUBLE BINGO M F Poon · Y S Tsui 10 9.6 2
6 2 INNO CENTURY M Chadwick · W Y So 8 37.0 2-3/4
7 12 EVER SMART H Doyle · F C Lor 4 6.4 3-1/4
8 3 JOYFUL TREASURE K De Melo · K W Lui 2 8.8 3-1/4
9 7 BRILLIANT FIRE D Probert · D J Whyte 6 46.0 3-1/4
10 1 ALWAYS MY FOLKS K Teetan · C W Chang 3 5.0 4
11 8 SUPER CHARIZZARD L Ferraris · M Newnham 11 35.0 4-1/2
12 6 BEAUTY FORMULA Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 85.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LEGEND STAR2. GLORY CLOUD+0.1L3. SONIC BOOM+0.75L4. GLORIOUS EXPERT+1.75L5. DOUBLE BINGO+2L6. INNO CENTURY+2.75L7. EVER SMART+3.25L8. JOYFUL TREASURE+3.25L9. BRILLIANT FIRE+3.25L10. ALWAYS MY FOLKS+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ALWAYS MY FOLKS (27.8%) finished 10th — the winner LEGEND STAR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ALWAYS MY FOLKS 27.8% 3.60 10
2 9 DOUBLE BINGO 11.8% 8.48 5
3 10 SONIC BOOM 9.7% 10.32 3
4 12 EVER SMART 9.7% 10.36 7
5 5 LEGEND STAR 8.4% 11.85 1
6 4 GLORY CLOUD 7.2% 13.94 2
7 3 JOYFUL TREASURE 6.0% 16.56 8
8 11 GLORIOUS EXPERT 5.5% 18.03 4
9 2 INNO CENTURY 5.0% 19.82 6
10 8 SUPER CHARIZZARD 4.5% 22.46 11
11 7 BRILLIANT FIRE 2.7% 36.98 9
12 6 BEAUTY FORMULA 1.7% 59.62 12
ALWAYS MY FOLKSDOUBLE BINGOSONIC BOOMEVER SMARTLEGEND STAR — wonGLORY CLOUDJOYFUL TREASUREGLORIOUS EXPERTINNO CENTURYSUPER CHARIZZARDBRILLIANT FIREBEAUTY FORMULA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 214

PLACE

4 30.5

5 50.5

10 25.5

QUINELLA

4,5 937.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 258

4,10 121

5,10 206

FORECAST

5,4 1,865

TIERCE

5,4,10 16,512

TRIO

4,5,10 2,138

FIRST 4

4,5,10,11 2,367

QUARTET

5,4,10,11 81,136