Happy Valley · 2025-11-26 · 12:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-26 was Class 4 over 1200m. EVERSTAR, ridden by J Orman and trained by Y S Tsui, won, with DENFIELD second and CHARMING STEED third. The 4.2 favourite DENFIELD finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | EVERSTAR 1:10.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 4 | 4.9 | — |
| 2 | 8 | DENFIELD H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 2 | 4.2 | NOSE |
| 3 | 7 | CHARMING STEED D Probert · C Fownes | D Probert | C Fownes | 5 | 26.0 | N |
| 4 | 1 | FATAL BLOW L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 10 | 7.1 | N |
| 5 | 11 | NEWBORN MIRACLE M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 8 | 7.1 | 1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | SWEET BRIAR L Hewitson · K H Ting | L Hewitson | K H Ting | 1 | 25.0 | 3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | ROMAN CROWN H Doyle · P C Ng | H Doyle | P C Ng | 6 | 8.3 | 3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | NEW POWER E C W Wong · C W Chang | E C W Wong | C W Chang | 3 | 6.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | ALABAMA SONG B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 7 | 31.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | THE ALL OUT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 12 | 47.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | SPICY SPANGLE K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 11 | 15.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | THE PROMISE M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 9 | 65.0 | 5-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | ROMAN CROWN | 27.2% | 3.68 | 7 |
| 2 | 1 | FATAL BLOW | 11.9% | 8.39 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | EVERSTAR | 9.8% | 10.24 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | DENFIELD | 9.8% | 10.25 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | NEWBORN MIRACLE | 9.5% | 10.48 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | SWEET BRIAR | 8.7% | 11.50 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | NEW POWER | 8.3% | 12.03 | 8 |
| 8 | 3 | ALABAMA SONG | 4.6% | 21.70 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | SPICY SPANGLE | 3.4% | 29.42 | 11 |
| 10 | 2 | THE ALL OUT | 3.0% | 33.37 | 10 |
| 11 | 7 | CHARMING STEED | 2.2% | 46.23 | 3 |
| 12 | 9 | THE PROMISE | 1.6% | 61.26 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 49.5
PLACE
4 18.5
7 73.5
8 16.5
QUINELLA
4,8 114.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 322
4,8 49.5
7,8 319.5
FORECAST
4,8 241
TIERCE
4,8,7 4,352
TRIO
4,7,8 1,112
FIRST 4
1,4,7,8 1,783
QUARTET
4,8,7,1 37,423
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
12/4 517
12/8 118