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Happy Valley · 2025-11-26 · 11:45

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-11-26 was Class 4 over 1200m. SOMELOVEFROMABOVE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C Fownes, won, with FLOW WATER FLOW second and NEVER SETTLE third. The 3.8 favourite NEVER SETTLE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1:09.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 SOMELOVEFROMABOVE 1:09.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C Fownes 1 9.1
2 4 FLOW WATER FLOW H Bowman · J Size 3 26.0 NOSE
3 5 NEVER SETTLE C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 3.8 HD
4 11 SONIC PURSUIT A Atzeni · J Richards 12 13.0 1/2
5 10 GOLDEN LUCK K C Leung · K L Man 2 4.5 2-1/4
6 1 TACTICAL COMMAND A Badel · M Newnham 7 19.0 2-1/2
7 6 BITS SUPERSTAR Z Purton · D J Hall 5 5.8 3-1/4
8 2 FUN ELITE E C W Wong · C W Chang 11 6.0 3-1/2
9 9 DASHING MAURISON R Kingscote · D A Hayes 9 62.0 4-3/4
10 7 GOLDEN DARCI K De Melo · D J Whyte 10 25.0 5
11 8 CONSPIRATOR H Doyle · B Crawford 4 44.0 6
12 3 FRANCIS MEYNELL K Teetan · D Eustace 8 25.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOMELOVEFROMABOVE2. FLOW WATER FLOW+0.05L3. NEVER SETTLE+0.2L4. SONIC PURSUIT+0.5L5. GOLDEN LUCK+2.25L6. TACTICAL COMMAND+2.5L7. BITS SUPERSTAR+3.25L8. FUN ELITE+3.5L9. DASHING MAURISON+4.75L10. GOLDEN DARCI+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick BITS SUPERSTAR (28.6%) finished 7th — the winner SOMELOVEFROMABOVE was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 BITS SUPERSTAR 28.6% 3.49 7
2 10 GOLDEN LUCK 15.0% 6.67 5
3 5 NEVER SETTLE 14.7% 6.83 3
4 4 FLOW WATER FLOW 11.0% 9.07 2
5 2 FUN ELITE 5.8% 17.38 8
6 3 FRANCIS MEYNELL 4.9% 20.39 12
7 12 SOMELOVEFROMABOVE 4.5% 22.45 1
8 7 GOLDEN DARCI 4.0% 25.01 10
9 11 SONIC PURSUIT 3.8% 26.30 4
10 1 TACTICAL COMMAND 3.1% 32.28 6
11 9 DASHING MAURISON 2.4% 41.47 9
12 8 CONSPIRATOR 2.3% 43.67 11
BITS SUPERSTARGOLDEN LUCKNEVER SETTLEFLOW WATER FLOWFUN ELITEFRANCIS MEYNELLSOMELOVEFROMABOVE — wonGOLDEN DARCISONIC PURSUITTACTICAL COMMANDDASHING MAURISONCONSPIRATOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 91.5

PLACE

4 58.5

5 16.5

12 29

QUINELLA

4,12 983

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 83.5

4,12 306

5,12 79.5

FORECAST

12,4 1,671

TIERCE

12,4,5 10,843

TRIO

4,5,12 1,534

FIRST 4

4,5,11,12 3,153

QUARTET

12,4,5,11 85,904

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,5/4,5,12 1,129,764

2ND DOUBLE

5/4 1,008

5/12 5,344