Sha Tin · 2025-12-20 · 05:05
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-12-20 was Class 5 over 1400m. CIRCUIT FIERY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won, with DOUBLE SHOW second and HE WAS ME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CIRCUIT FIERY Closed strongly 1:22.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 9 | 2.9 | — |
| 2 | 6 | DOUBLE SHOW Closed strongly K Teetan · B Crawford | K Teetan | B Crawford | 3 | 5.9 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | HE WAS ME Closed strongly A Atzeni · A S Cruz | A Atzeni | A S Cruz | 8 | 16.0 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | DECRELOT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 6 | 30.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | SOMETHING JONAH Closed strongly J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 14 | 48.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | VERBIER Led early L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 4 | 11.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | ISLAND GOLDEN H Doyle · K L Man | H Doyle | K L Man | 2 | 34.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 14 | EURO ROCKS H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 7 | 6.9 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | SMART ENGINEER Closed strongly R Kingscote · K W Lui | R Kingscote | K W Lui | 12 | 91.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | GALE SAGA M Guyon · P C Ng | M Guyon | P C Ng | 5 | 4.8 | 7 |
| 11 | 12 | ALL EYES ON ME Closed strongly K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 11 | 63.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 13 | WISDOM STAR H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 13 | 81.0 | 11 |
| 13 | 7 | KA YING POWER M L Yeung · J Size | M L Yeung | J Size | 10 | 16.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 14 | 9 | LITTLE FAIRY M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 1 | 48.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CIRCUIT FIERY | 24.8% | 4.04 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | DOUBLE SHOW | 16.2% | 6.18 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | GALE SAGA | 14.4% | 6.96 | 10 |
| 4 | 8 | VERBIER | 12.4% | 8.05 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | HE WAS ME | 5.3% | 18.93 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | KA YING POWER | 4.7% | 21.18 | 13 |
| 7 | 14 | EURO ROCKS | 3.9% | 25.83 | 8 |
| 8 | 5 | DECRELOT | 3.6% | 27.63 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | ISLAND GOLDEN | 3.5% | 28.39 | 7 |
| 10 | 9 | LITTLE FAIRY | 2.8% | 35.53 | 14 |
| 11 | 4 | SOMETHING JONAH | 2.6% | 37.90 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | ALL EYES ON ME | 2.5% | 39.80 | 11 |
| 13 | 13 | WISDOM STAR | 1.9% | 51.99 | 12 |
| 14 | 3 | SMART ENGINEER | 1.4% | 73.21 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 29.5
PLACE
1 14
6 18
10 44
QUINELLA
1,6 87
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 35
1,10 87
6,10 110
FORECAST
1,6 143
TIERCE
1,6,10 1,843
TRIO
1,6,10 436
FIRST 4
1,5,6,10 2,014
QUARTET
1,6,10,5 28,526