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Sha Tin · 2025-12-20 · 08:10

Race 7

Class 4 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2025-12-20 was Class 4 over 1600m. FIT FOR BEAUTY, ridden by J McDonald and trained by J Size, won, with AMAZING DUCK second and SMART FAT CAT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1:34.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 FIT FOR BEAUTY Closed strongly 1:34.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · J Size 6 2.9 —
2 12 AMAZING DUCK R Kingscote · K H Ting 3 12.0 HD
3 7 SMART FAT CAT Closed strongly Z Purton · W K Mo 8 4.2 1/2
4 5 ALL ROUND WINNER Closed strongly H Bentley · D A Hayes 4 9.7 1-1/4
5 3 AUDACIOUS PURSUIT Closed strongly H Bowman · C Fownes 13 5.5 2-1/4
6 11 VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly H Doyle · P F Yiu 5 17.0 2-3/4
7 8 SPECIAL HEDGE Closed strongly L Hewitson · C W Chang 7 29.0 4
8 9 NAMJONG KINGDOM Closed strongly C Y Ho · W Y So 10 48.0 6-1/4
9 10 SPLENDID FORCE D Probert · D J Whyte 9 93.0 6-3/4
10 6 CIRCUIT MARSHAL C L Chau · M Newnham 1 18.0 7-1/4
11 1 NEZHA Closed strongly J Orman · D J Hall 14 23.0 9-1/4
12 4 GLORIOUS SUCCESS K Teetan · D Eustace 11 29.0 11
13 14 BIG STRIDE M L Yeung · J Richards 2 70.0 12-1/2
14 13 MULTIDUTCH Led early A Atzeni · A S Cruz 12 81.0 18

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIT FOR BEAUTY—2. AMAZING DUCK+0.2L3. SMART FAT CAT+0.5L4. ALL ROUND WINNER+1.25L5. AUDACIOUS PURSUIT+2.25L6. VOLCANIC SPARK+2.75L7. SPECIAL HEDGE+4L8. NAMJONG KINGDOM+6.25L9. SPLENDID FORCE+6.75L10. CIRCUIT MARSHAL+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick FIT FOR BEAUTY (33.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FIT FOR BEAUTY 33.5% 2.99 1
2 7 SMART FAT CAT 18.7% 5.35 3
3 3 AUDACIOUS PURSUIT 10.7% 9.33 5
4 4 GLORIOUS SUCCESS 5.6% 17.74 12
5 6 CIRCUIT MARSHAL 5.1% 19.76 10
6 1 NEZHA 4.8% 20.81 11
7 11 VOLCANIC SPARK 4.7% 21.36 6
8 5 ALL ROUND WINNER 4.1% 24.64 4
9 12 AMAZING DUCK 3.1% 32.29 2
10 8 SPECIAL HEDGE 2.9% 34.34 7
11 13 MULTIDUTCH 2.3% 43.08 14
12 9 NAMJONG KINGDOM 2.2% 44.86 8
13 14 BIG STRIDE 1.4% 69.22 13
14 10 SPLENDID FORCE 0.9% 116.33 9
FIT FOR BEAUTY — wonSMART FAT CATAUDACIOUS PURSUITGLORIOUS SUCCESSCIRCUIT MARSHALNEZHAVOLCANIC SPARKALL ROUND WINNERAMAZING DUCKSPECIAL HEDGEMULTIDUTCHNAMJONG KINGDOMBIG STRIDESPLENDID FORCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 29.5

PLACE

2 15

7 16.5

12 35.5

QUINELLA

2,12 214

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 29

2,12 83.5

7,12 91

FORECAST

2,12 387

TIERCE

2,12,7 1,623

TRIO

2,7,12 266

FIRST 4

2,5,7,12 680

QUARTET

2,12,7,5 13,245

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

7,10,14/2,7,12 4,643

6TH DOUBLE

7/2 60.5

7/12 90.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,2,4/7,10,14/2,7,12 170,409

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,2,4/7,10,14/Any Combination 695

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