Sha Tin · 2025-12-20 · 10:20
Race 11
Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2025-12-20 was Class 3 over 1600m. INVINCIBLE IBIS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by M Newnham, won, with LOVERO second and FORTUNE BOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite DAZZLING FIT finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | INVINCIBLE IBIS Closed strongly 1:34.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · M Newnham | Z Purton | M Newnham | 3 | 2.9 | — |
| 2 | 12 | LOVERO Closed strongly L Hewitson · B Crawford | L Hewitson | B Crawford | 6 | 26.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | FORTUNE BOY Closed strongly K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 4 | 9.4 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | BRILLIANT EXPRESS H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 8 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | DAZZLING FIT Closed strongly J McDonald · D Eustace | J McDonald | D Eustace | 9 | 2.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | GRACIOUS EXPRESS B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 10 | 44.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | TIN FOOK Closed strongly A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 14 | 15.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SUPERB KID Closed strongly H Doyle · K W Lui | H Doyle | K W Lui | 12 | 52.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | ANODE J Orman · C S Shum | J Orman | C S Shum | 1 | 22.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | TOURBILLON PRINCE R Kingscote · C W Chang | R Kingscote | C W Chang | 7 | 63.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | VECU Led early Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 56.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | REAL GENTLEMAN C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 11 | 132.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | MASTER TRILLION K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 5 | 42.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 14 | 11 | HERBAL STAR H Bentley · Y S Tsui | H Bentley | Y S Tsui | 13 | 123.0 | 12-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | INVINCIBLE IBIS | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | DAZZLING FIT | 17.0% | 5.87 | 5 |
| 3 | 8 | FORTUNE BOY | 10.4% | 9.59 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | TIN FOOK | 5.8% | 17.33 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | BRILLIANT EXPRESS | 3.8% | 26.62 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | GRACIOUS EXPRESS | 2.5% | 39.75 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | ANODE | 1.9% | 53.31 | 9 |
| 8 | 12 | LOVERO | 1.4% | 69.16 | 2 |
| 9 | 13 | MASTER TRILLION | 1.4% | 72.42 | 13 |
| 10 | 7 | SUPERB KID | 1.1% | 94.75 | 8 |
| 11 | 3 | TOURBILLON PRINCE | 0.8% | 123.26 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | VECU | 0.7% | 140.04 | 11 |
| 13 | 11 | HERBAL STAR | 0.6% | 157.87 | 14 |
| 14 | 9 | REAL GENTLEMAN | 0.5% | 189.24 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 29.5
PLACE
5 13.5
8 21.5
12 59
QUINELLA
5,12 422
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 38.5
5,12 125.5
8,12 257
FORECAST
5,12 571
TIERCE
5,12,8 3,899
TRIO
5,8,12 697
FIRST 4
2,5,8,12 1,420
QUARTET
5,12,8,2 24,178
All pools (4 more)
10TH DOUBLE
14/5 284
14/12 528
2ND TREBLE
12/14/5 3,838
12/14/12 6,161
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
7,8,14/5,8,12 52,840
SIX UP
7/2/9/12/14/5 69,891
7,10/2,12/8,9/1,12/8,14/5,12 26,766
4 [W K Mo] —
1 [J McDonald], 8 [M Guyon] —