Sha Tin · 2025-12-27 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 2 2000m Course A+3 9 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-12-27 was Class 2 over 2000m. NUMBERS, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won, with WINNING WING second and GENTLEMEN LEGACY third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite WINNING WING finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2:00.94

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	NUMBERS Wire to wire 2:00.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	4	119 lb	6.0	—
2	6	WINNING WING Closed strongly H T Mo · K W Lui	H T Mo	K W Lui	9	115 lb	3.3	1
3	9	GENTLEMEN LEGACY Closed strongly M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	6	115 lb	10.0	1-1/4
4	7	NOISY BOY K Teetan · C H Yip	K Teetan	C H Yip	1	115 lb	7.4	2
5	8	BRAVEHEARTS Closed strongly M F Poon · M Newnham	M F Poon	M Newnham	7	115 lb	11.0	2-1/4
6	4	AWESOME FLUKE A Atzeni · P F Yiu	A Atzeni	P F Yiu	5	119 lb	14.0	3-3/4
7	3	KA YING GENERATION L Ferraris · P C Ng	L Ferraris	P C Ng	3	122 lb	6.2	3-3/4
8	2	LO RIDER H Bentley · C Fownes	H Bentley	C Fownes	2	124 lb	5.5	6-1/4
9	1	SWORD POINT D Probert · F C Lor	D Probert	F C Lor	8	135 lb	46.0	21

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26

The model's top pick WINNING WING (37.2%) finished 2nd — the winner NUMBERS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	WINNING WING	37.2%	2.69	2	3.3
2	2	LO RIDER	16.4%	6.11	8	5.5
3	9	GENTLEMEN LEGACY	11.7%	8.53	3	10.0
4	5	NUMBERS	10.5%	9.49	1	6.0
5	7	NOISY BOY	6.5%	15.28	4	7.4
6	8	BRAVEHEARTS	5.9%	16.81	5	11.0
7	4	AWESOME FLUKE	5.1%	19.70	6	14.0
8	3	KA YING GENERATION	4.8%	20.93	7	6.2
9	1	SWORD POINT	1.8%	55.63	9	46.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 60.5

PLACE

5 20

6 14.5

9 29

QUINELLA

5,6 132

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 48

5,9 108

6,9 56

FORECAST

5,6 263

TIERCE

5,6,9 1,448

TRIO

5,6,9 284

FIRST 4

5,6,7,9 431

QUARTET

5,6,9,7 7,542

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/5 146

2/6 13

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