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Sha Tin · 2026-01-18 · 07:35

TRIATHLON 1600M HANDICAP

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 7 ("TRIATHLON 1600M HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-01-18 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FLOW WATER FLOW, ridden by D B McMonagle and trained by J Size, won, with THE GOLDEN KNIGHT second and AMAZING GAZE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite THE GOLDEN KNIGHT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:34.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 FLOW WATER FLOW Closed strongly B 1:34.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) D B McMonagle · J Size 9 5.2
2 5 THE GOLDEN KNIGHT Closed strongly XB J Orman · K W Lui 5 4.3 SH
3 4 AMAZING GAZE CP Z Purton · D A Hayes 14 6.3 3/4
4 7 RELIABLE DAD Closed strongly XB1 A Badel · D J Hall 13 39.0 1-3/4
5 8 SMART FAT CAT Closed strongly CP/H/TT C Y Ho · W K Mo 3 6.4 1-3/4
6 12 AMAZING DUCK Led early TT R Kingscote · K H Ting 1 7.6 2-1/2
7 13 MAZING GRACE H/TT1 M L Yeung · C W Chang 8 120.0 2-1/2
8 1 AEROVOLANIC CP M Guyon · P C Ng 2 17.0 3
9 3 BEAUTY VIVA Closed strongly TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 12 12.0 3-3/4
10 11 ACE CP/TT K Teetan · J Richards 6 21.0 4
11 14 NINJA DERBY L Hewitson · B Crawford 7 15.0 4-1/4
12 9 KYRUS TREASURE CP/TT C L Chau · D Eustace 10 20.0 5
13 6 BLOSSOMY M F Poon · K L Man 4 85.0 5-1/4
14 10 STAR ELEGANCE XB/CP1 K C Leung · D J Whyte 11 163.0 6-1/2
0 WINNING DATA V · P F Yiu
0 THE LION KING · F C Lor

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLOW WATER FLOW2. THE GOLDEN KNIGHT+0.1L3. AMAZING GAZE+0.75L4. RELIABLE DAD+1.75L5. SMART FAT CAT+1.75L6. AMAZING DUCK+2.5L7. MAZING GRACE+2.5L8. AEROVOLANIC+3L9. BEAUTY VIVA+3.75L10. ACE+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick FLOW WATER FLOW (23.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FLOW WATER FLOW 23.1% 4.33 1
2 5 THE GOLDEN KNIGHT 18.9% 5.30 2
3 8 SMART FAT CAT 15.7% 6.37 5
4 4 AMAZING GAZE 6.8% 14.81 3
5 1 AEROVOLANIC 6.2% 16.11 8
6 12 AMAZING DUCK 5.7% 17.42 6
7 3 BEAUTY VIVA 5.1% 19.43 9
8 9 KYRUS TREASURE 4.1% 24.47 12
9 14 NINJA DERBY 4.1% 24.50 11
10 6 BLOSSOMY 3.0% 33.51 13
11 11 ACE 2.8% 36.13 10
12 7 RELIABLE DAD 2.0% 50.65 4
13 13 MAZING GRACE 1.6% 64.41 7
14 10 STAR ELEGANCE 1.0% 95.67 14
FLOW WATER FLOW — wonTHE GOLDEN KNIGHTSMART FAT CATAMAZING GAZEAEROVOLANICAMAZING DUCKBEAUTY VIVAKYRUS TREASURENINJA DERBYBLOSSOMYACERELIABLE DADMAZING GRACESTAR ELEGANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 52.5

PLACE

2 22

4 20.5

5 19

QUINELLA

2,5 149.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 93.5

2,5 56.5

4,5 62

FORECAST

2,5 277

TIERCE

2,5,4 1,738

TRIO

2,4,5 399

FIRST 4

2,4,5,7 1,875

QUARTET

2,5,4,7 23,172

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,12/2,4,5 35,123

6TH DOUBLE

5/2 280

5/5 31

TRIPLE TRIO

2,4,6/3,5,12/2,4,5 2,741,544

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,4,6/3,5,12/Any Combination 7,786